A government of national unity, a coalition agreement, agreements on a case-by-case basis? Since the second round of the legislative elections, Sunday June 19, the hypotheses are multiplying on the way in which Emmanuel Macron could exercise power, after the loss of his absolute majority in the Assembly.
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Theoretical reflections will quickly have to be embodied in a practical solution: from July 6, the government must present to the Council of Ministers its law on purchasing power and its amending budget, supposed to support the French in the emergency in the face of inflation. The examination of these two texts in Parliament should begin on July 18.
These measures, estimated at around 9 billion euros by the French Observatory of Economic Conditions (OFCE), will be added to the nearly 30 billion euros already disbursed to protect the portfolio of French people since the start of the crisis of the Covid-19. Among them: the 4% revaluation of retirement pensions and social minima, the unfreezing of the index point for civil servants, the creation of a new inflation check in place of the food check initially promised, the continuation of the tariff shield on energy, the extension of the discount of 18 cents per liter of fuel, but also the abolition of the TV license fee.
In the absence of an absolute majority, the parliamentary examination of the two texts constitutes a first test for the executive, which will have to demonstrate that it succeeds in federating to keep its campaign promises. In order to avoid stagnation, thehe President of the Republic also called on Wednesday, June 22, the opposition to “building compromises”, after meeting with party leaders for two days. The Prime Minister, Elisabeth Borne, in turn lent herself to the game of negotiation, by receiving the presidents of the parliamentary groups at the end of last week. She must also chair the majority breakfast scheduled for Tuesday. “We are in a logic of seeking compromise, seeking consensus on texts which are extremely important for the life of the French”assures Aurore Bergé, deputy and president of the Renaissance group (the new name of LREM) in the Assembly.
But the oppositions do not intend to monetize their support at low cost. Faced with the cul-de-sac in which the majority finds itself, the Republicans, the left alliance (Nupes) and the National Rally want to color the future law with their campaign proposals on purchasing power. And ensure that they will vote for the measures proposed on a case-by-case basis, without guaranteeing their support for the entire text.
“What we wanted was the price freeze, which can be taken by decree. So we will continue to press the government to take this measure”assures the LFI deputy for Seine-Saint-Denis Clémentine Autain to France Télévisions. “If tomorrow, there is on the table of Parliament the possibility of increasing the minimum wage immediately from 10 to 15% (…) well, there will be the majority of left-wing deputies who will vote for this measure”also launched the communist deputy from the North Fabien Roussel on RTL. “The question is not this or that cosmetic measure but a global problem, nevertheless warns the deputy LFI Eric Coquerel. Are we continuing with a policy aimed at lowering the deficit and boosting capital income? Do we give punctually crumbs to the most disadvantaged while we make lasting gifts to the richest?
On the side of the National Rally, the RN deputy of Moselle Laurent Jacobelli assures that he is ready to “work for the common good”. But he too hopes for a resumption of the far-right party’s flagship proposals during the presidential campaign: the reduction of VAT from 20% to 5.5% on energy products and its abolition on 100 basic necessities. On the other hand, like Nupes and LR, there is no question of endorsing the policy of the government of “small checks”slips the RN deputy from Oise Philippe Ballard.
To help the wallet of the French, the Republicans propose them to lower taxes on fuels, reduce the CSG on wages and remove it for pensions, but also to fully tax overtime. While many of them say they are open to voting for the text provided that the government draws on their proposals, they nevertheless warn the executive about the cost of the measures to come, while the Minister of Public Accounts, Gabriel Attal, promised to maintain the budgetary trajectory to which the government had committed: to reduce the public deficit to 3% of GDP in 2027 and 5% this year, after 6.5% last year.
“We can no longer postpone the debate on public financesis alarmed Charles de Courson, MP for the Freedom and Territories group and vice-president of the Finance Commission in the previous legislature. When we do the policy of the ostrich for too long, we are caught by the patrol.”
Put your hand in your pocket to win the support of the left and the far right… without increasing the structural deficit to seduce the right. The government’s score will not be easy to play, even if in view of the expectation of the French on purchasing power, the opposition has no interest in appearing as the gravediggers of these measures. On what points to give in? With regard to the revaluation of pensions, “it can be more [que 4%]it will be one of the things that are discussed“, assured the spokesperson of the government, Olivia Grégoire. “It is much too early to answer”, we nevertheless breathe in Bercy. The opposition parties were invited by Emmanuel Macron to “say in full transparency how far they are willing to go”. To allow the majority to know, finally, on which foot to dance.