In Quebec public schools, nearly one in five boys dropped out of high school during the pandemic. In some regions, this proportion even rises to more than 30%.
The Ministry of Education recently made public its most recent data concerning the “exit rate without diploma or qualification”, which dates back to 2020-2021.
To establish this indicator, the Ministry of Education takes into account the number of young people who attended secondary school in 2020-2021, compared to those who continued their studies the following year, in 2021-2022.
Result: for the entire school network, this rate remained relatively stable, going from 13.5% to 13.8% in one year.
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The increase in dropouts is, however, greater among the ranks of boys attending public schools: this proportion increased from 18% in 2019-2020 to 19.4% in 2020-2021.
In certain school service centers located in Outaouais, Lanaudière, Estrie and Mauricie, this figure even rises to more than 30% (see details below).
This indicator is the one that comes closest to the dropout rate, but it is not perfect since it also includes young people who have moved outside the province.
In the Outaouais region, the dropout phenomenon could therefore be slightly overestimated due to its proximity to Ontario.
“Little surf”
The pandemic has given rise to a “small backlash,” notes Frédéric Guay, who is a professor at Laval University and holds a research chair on motivation and academic success.
Unsurprisingly, the health crisis and its upheavals could have had more pronounced effects on students in difficulty, who are predominantly boys, he emphasizes.
These students may have been more “discouraged” or “demotivated” by online teaching.
We will have to wait a little longer before knowing if this rise is part of a trend or if it is more of a jolt linked to the pandemic, underlines Mr. Guay.
A long decline followed by a rise
Since the beginning of the 2000s, the dropout rate has been in constant decline in Quebec, but it has however seen a slight increase since 2015, we note in the ministry’s report.
Furthermore, “the rate of leaving without a diploma or qualification observed among boys remains significantly higher than that observed among girls, despite a great improvement over the last two decades,” we can read.
In 2018-2019, the dropout rate among boys enrolled in public schools exceeded that reached during the pandemic, standing at 20.4%.
The gap observed between boys and girls is, however, decreasing, having even halved over the past twenty years.
Real-time portrait
For his part, expert Égide Royer believes that it is time for the ministry to equip itself with data that allows it to have a much more current portrait of the situation.
“The ministry has a passive approach, it would require much more up-to-date data,” says this psychologist and academic success specialist. More than 10,000 young people leaving without a diploma, the majority of whom are boys, is still too many.”
Furthermore, last fall’s teachers’ strike did not lead to an increase in school dropouts, according to figures obtained by The newspaper from the relevant school service centers (see below).
Dropout rate for boys by school service center*
The worst:
- Western Quebec (Outaouais): 33.7%
- Samares (Lanaudière): 32.4%
- Hauts-Cantons (Estrie): 32.2%
- Sorel-Tracy (Montérégie): 31.4%
- Energy (Mauricie): 30.9%
The best:
- Discoverers (Quebec): 7.7%
- Lighthouses (Bas-St-Laurent): 11.5%
- Premières-Seigneuries (Quebec): 11.6%
- Patriotes (Montérégie): 11.7%
- Jonquière (Saguenay): 11.9%
*The Cree and Kativik school boards and the Littoral school service center, which have a special status, are excluded from this list.
Teachers’ strike: no increase in dropouts for the moment
The teachers’ strike last fall has not encouraged more young people to drop out, at least for now.
The newspaper obtained figures concerning dropouts during the school year in secondary schools in service centers affected by the strike of the Autonomous Federation of Education (FAE), which lasted around twenty days last fall.
The data obtained covers the period from November 23, 2023, when the strike began, to January 15, 2024, i.e. approximately one week after returning to class, compared to the same period the previous year.
In 11 of the 12 service centers that responded to us, the number of students who dropped out of high school during this period is stable or decreasing.
However, it is perhaps a little early to declare victory, says Andrée-Mayer Périard, president of the Quebec Network for Educational Success.
“The effects of the strike are expected to be felt over a longer period. But if it is not a massacre in the short term, we can only rejoice, while remaining vigilant,” she says.
Dropouts during the year are compiled by the school service centers. However, this is a different indicator from the “exit rate without diploma or qualification” compiled by the Ministry of Education.