(Paris) Demonstrations have been less frequent in recent weeks in Iran, but the protest remains lively after four months of protests, despite the regime’s fierce repression which has resulted in hundreds of deaths and four hangings.
On September 16, 22-year-old Mahsa Amini died following her arrest by vice squad for violating the strict dress code for women in the Islamic Republic. If the breath of revolt that has gripped Iran since then has still not died down, it now takes different forms.
“Revolutionary processes usually involve phases of relative calm and others of tumult,” comments Ali Fathollah-Nejad, a political scientist at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut.
With the “relative decline in the number of demonstrations”, Iran seems to be “at an impasse, neither the regime nor the demonstrators being able to impose themselves”, he continues. And to anticipate new overflows due to the economic crisis that the country is experiencing.
With the considerable loss in value of the Iranian currency since the beginning of the year, one can expect demonstrations focused on the economy, which, as the past shows, could quickly turn political.
Ali Fathollah-Nejad, political scientist at the Issam Fares Institute for Public Policy and International Affairs at the American University of Beirut
The number of strikes and other acts of dissent such as the writing of slogans or the destruction of government signs have thus increased, reports the site enqelab.info, which monitors the extent of protest activity.
“Wiser Citizens”
“The national uprising is alive, although the way people express their dissent has changed due to the deadly crackdown by the authorities during the fall,” said enqelab in a statement sent to AFP.
According to the Norwegian NGO Iran Human Rights, at least 481 people have been killed and at least 109 people are at risk of execution in connection with the protests, in addition to the four already hanged. Tehran recognizes hundreds of dead, including members of the security forces.
The UN also counted 14,000 arrests during demonstrations whose demands initially focused on the end of the obligation to wear the Islamic headscarf for women. To then demand that the Islamic Republic created after the ousting of the Shah in 1979 end.
The protests have simply “decreased” because “citizens are more cautious,” remarks Roya Boroumand, co-founder of the Abdorrahman Boroumand Center, an Iranian human rights NGO: “but they are not over. »
Witness the massive rally in January outside Rajaishar prison in Karaj, near Tehran, amid rumors of the imminent hanging of two death row inmates linked to the protests. Both men are still alive.
The popular movement has “changed the narrative that the Islamic Republic has imposed for several decades on Iranians, who they are and what they want”, says Ms.me Boroumand.
But nothing indicates that Tehran is ready to make any significant concessions. The crackdown may even intensify, as the appointment as head of the national police of Ahmad Reza Radan, a radical known for stifling 2009 protests against disputed elections, seems to indicate.
“Mistrust” at the top
A decision that can only increase Iran’s isolation from the West, as talks on reviving the 2015 agreement on its nuclear program have been frozen. Iranian authorities are also furious that the UN has launched a fact-finding mission into the crackdowns.
At the same time, Tehran has moved strongly closer to Vladimir Putin’s Russia, another pariah state of the West, by delivering hundreds of drones to Moscow, which the Russian army has been using for months against Ukraine.
But the first divisions seem to appear within the authorities, while Tehran has not mobilized all its repressive paraphernalia, despite the bloodshed, according to observers.
Iran this month executed former deputy defense minister Alireza Akbari, who had obtained British citizenship after leaving his post, for spying for the United Kingdom.
An “unexpected verdict” that could point to a “power struggle” within the elite over how to handle the protests, notes Cornelius Adebahr, a non-resident fellow at the Carnegie Europe research center.
Alireza Akbari was seen as close to Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Shamkhani and other figures who advocated for some reforms to address protesters’ grievances.
“There are signs of cracks” in power, abounds Ali Fathollah-Nejad. This execution shows that “mistrust has set in among regime insiders,” he insists.
Four months of protest in Iran
PHOTO ARCHIVES ASSOCIATED PRESS
A demonstration in downtown Tehran on September 21
The main events since the September 16 death of Mahsa Amini, which triggered countless protests, leading to a severe crackdown by the Iranian regime.
Dead because of the veil
On September 16, Mahsa Amini, 22, died in hospital after a coma. She had been arrested three days earlier by the morality police who accused her of having violated the dress code of the Islamic Republic, in particular imposing on women the wearing of the veil in public.
Events
Mahsa Amini was buried the next day in her hometown of Saghez (province of Kurdistan). A demonstration is dispersed with tear gas.
Many personalities express their anger on social networks. An Iranian parliamentarian, in an unusual position, criticizes the morality police.
The demonstrations extend to about fifteen cities. Images on social media show women setting their headscarves on fire.
Instagram and WhatsApp blocked
On September 22, authorities block Instagram and WhatsApp, the most used apps in Iran.
The United States announces economic sanctions targeting vice police and several security officials, followed by Canada, the United Kingdom and the European Union. Other sanctions will follow.
Counter-demonstrations
At the call of the authorities, thousands of people marched on September 23, defending the wearing of the veil.
President Ebrahim Raïsi called on the police the next day to act “firmly” against the demonstrators.
On September 28, Mahsa Amini’s family filed a complaint against the “authors of her arrest”.
Khamenei accuses Washington
Violent incidents broke out on October 2 in Tehran between students and security forces at the Sharif University of Technology.
The following week, teenage girls demonstrated by removing their veils and shouting anti-regime slogans.
Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei accuses the United States, Israel and their “agents” of fomenting the protest.
Strikes
On October 10, the protest spread to the oil sector, with strikes and rallies in several cities.
Lawyers join the movement, taking up the slogan of the demonstrators “Woman, life, freedom! in Tehran, as well as traders, workers, students and teachers.
Repression at the end of mourning
On October 26, the security forces opened fire, according to the NGO Hengaw based in Norway, on demonstrators gathered in the town of origin of Mahsa Amini, where thousands of people had attended a ceremony in tribute to the end of the traditional 40-day mourning.
18 death sentences
On December 8, Iran executes a man accused of injuring a paramilitary during the unrest. A second execution occurs on December 12, then two more on January 7, 2023.
As of January 10, 2023, the regime has sentenced a total of 18 people to death in connection with the protest, according to a count compiled by AFP from official announcements.
Non-wearing of the veil: return to sanctions
On January 10, the Iranian justice system announces that it wants to reapply a law providing for severe sanctions, such as exile, for people who do not respect the obligation to wear the veil.