Probable end of the right to abortion | 100,000 women a year will be unable to find a clinic

By ending the right to abortion, the Supreme Court is about to create a system where “the poorest and most vulnerable women in society will have nowhere to turn”, explains Caitlin Knowles Myers, professor of economics at Middlebury College and expert in reproductive policy data. Discussion.

Nicolas Berube
The Press

What did you think this week of the opinion draft leak that shows the days of abortion rights in the United States seem to be numbered?

I was surprised there was a leak, and then I was shocked and distraught to read in the draft opinion that the Supreme Court had simply decided to ignore the rigorous scientific evidence that had been presented. It is amazing to read that the Court says that it “cannot know” what the effects will be of invalidating the right to abortion, when so many scientists have provided them with solid evidence on these effects.

What will these repercussions be?

According to my calculations, in the states that will ban abortion, approximately one in four women who want an abortion will not be able to leave their state to go to a clinic that offers this service. It is estimated that 100,000 women a year will not be able to go to where abortion clinics are still open. Of these, about 75,000 are likely to carry their pregnancies to term.

And that number is probably too low, because it assumes that the 300,000 women who can afford to travel to another state to have an abortion will be able to get an appointment, which is far from certain. Let’s not forget that clinics in bordering states will be overwhelmed with demand. For example, we took the test in March, and no abortion clinic in Oklahoma had room for an appointment.

In the longer term, abortion clinics in states where the procedure will remain legal will seek to increase their capacity. But again, there is a lot of uncertainty. Florida and Kansas, for example, don’t seem to want to ban abortion right away, but may end up doing so in a year or two. If you own a clinic in these states and you’re inundated with requests, are you going to invest in an expansion when you don’t know if you’ll still be able to be open a year from now?

You say that the image often conveyed of the teenager who seeks an abortion so as not to become a mother before the end of her secondary education does not reflect the reality of the face of abortion in 2022.

Absolutely. I’m not saying these people don’t exist. Of course they exist. But you should know that 97% of women who have abortions in the United States are 18 or older. We also know that the majority of them are already mothers, that 75% of them are poor or have a low income, that most are financially unstable, that more than 60% of them report having recently experienced a disruptive event in their life, such as job loss, relationship breakup, late payment of rent, etc. In short, these are not women who have the time, money or resources to travel 500 km and go to another state for medical treatment. The effect will be felt especially among those women who are the poorest, the most disadvantaged, the most vulnerable in our society, who will have nowhere to turn. For them, an unwanted birth is likely to be particularly difficult to bear.

Also, we know that the States which are likely to ban abortion are the States which have the fewest social safety nets for women and children, which have the worst access to health care, which have the weakest social benefits . In my work, I try to stick to the facts and not play politics. But if the right to abortion were to disappear, it must be realized that many vulnerable women will have children that they did not feel ready to have. If these States have the well-being of children at heart – and I hope that we all have the well-being of children at heart – they must immediately strengthen their social safety net to support these families. Even though everyone has a different perspective on abortion, I think it’s something we can all agree on.