The long-prepared agreement on a historic exchange of 24 prisoners and two children, reached on Thursday between Russia and Western countries including the United States and Germany, raises questions about its potential consequences for the war in Ukraine.
“This prisoner exchange reveals that the United States and Russia have maintained discussions and have been talking to each other for a long time” on this issue, underlines Lukas Aubin, researcher at the Institute of International and Strategic Relations (Iris).
As during the Cold War, a period marked by many such exchanges between Americans and Soviets.
Old discussions
On December 14, 2023, President Vladimir Putin himself declared that he hoped for “an agreement” concerning in particular two Americans detained in Russia, including journalist Evan Gershkovich of the American daily Wall Street JournalHe thus implied that negotiations on a possible prisoner exchange had already begun.
According to the online investigative site The Insiderdiscussions had actually begun as early as early 2022, before Mr. Gershkovich had been arrested. They focused on Russian opposition figure Alexei Navalny.
“The Kremlin thought that it was enough to negotiate with the United States,” as Washington was able to influence the Europeans, explains the media.
But Russian Vadim Krassikov, a suspected FSB agent, was arrested and sentenced on December 15, 2021 in Berlin to life imprisonment for the murder of a former Chechen separatist commander, making Berlin’s participation in the negotiations unavoidable, according to The Insider.
According to the media, Vladimir Putin hoped to exchange Mr. Krasikov for Evan Gershkovich, who was “detained specifically” by Moscow for this purpose. But the Germans were only willing to discuss the exchange of Vadim Krasikov for Alexei Navalny, who eventually died in prison.
Asked by the press on Thursday in Paris, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock declined to comment. In Germany, however, it is acknowledged that the decision to release a convicted murderer “was not an easy one to take.”
Ukraine in the background
With this agreement, Russia is showing that “the Kremlin’s assassins are important to Putin,” says Liana Fix, an expert at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR), an American think tank. The Russian president “has repeatedly stressed that it is a matter of loyalty for him to get them out of prison,” she continues.
Russia may also be trying to “demonstrate that deals can be made with them in good faith, particularly in the run-up to the U.S. election and discussions about a possible deal on Ukraine,” with former Republican President Donald Trump saying he wanted to “end the war,” without elaborating, if he won the November election.
Liana Fix, however, doubts that there is a direct link between the prisoner exchange and a peace agreement, since both Washington and Berlin “have adhered to the principle that nothing concerns Ukraine without Ukraine.”
However, she observes, we can see in this Moscow’s desire to “show goodwill to facilitate entry into negotiations”, even if Vladimir Putin will try to impose his conditions on kyiv.
Lukas Aubin also points out that it is difficult to see the release of prisoners as a precondition for discussions on a peace agreement in Ukraine.
However, he notes that this exchange comes “at a time when Ukraine has opened a diplomatic door with Russia in recent weeks.”
“The whole world,” including Ukraine, wants Russia to participate in a future peace summit this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said in an interview this week with several media outlets including AFP.
“This also comes at a time when, on the Ukrainian side, there is a form of war weariness,” adds the Iris researcher.
“On the Russian side, we always boast of having the advantage [sur le terrain]. But we can also imagine that as the war drags on, we would be looking for a way out so that we can stop it and come out with our heads held high,” he believes.