The big ball of the American primaries opens Monday in Iowa, where Donald Trump could immediately crush all competition among the Republicans, unless his rivals Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis create a surprise, potentially helped by terrible weather.
The ex-president, four times indicted, faces the judgment of voters for the first time since he left the White House in unimaginable chaos.
Despite his legal troubles, according to polls, he has one of the largest leads ever seen over his Republican rivals.
The verdict will come Monday starting at 8 p.m., when Iowa voters will gather in schools, libraries and fire stations across this Midwestern state to choose their candidate.
“We will win hands down,” Donald Trump promises his activists.
He can rely on an army of volunteers who brush aside his legal troubles.
On Sunday, the former president is expected in Indianola, a city in central Iowa, where he is due to hold a meeting after canceling several campaign events in that state the day before due to the weather.
Because a last minute unknown disrupts the equation of the Republican favorite: the cold. The entire state is hit by a snowstorm and the thermometer is expected to drop below -20°C at the time of voting, with icy roads.
“Leadership”
Will Donald Trump’s voters, confident of his victory, vote under these conditions?
“If my car will come out of the garage!” », laughs Jeff Nikolas, 37 years old.
For this trucker, encountered by AFP on his way to buy a heater, only Donald Trump is capable of “putting an end to all the bullshit that is happening in the world at the moment”.
Five candidates are vying to stand in the way of Donald Trump. Among them, only two seem to still have a chance.
On one side, former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, the only woman in the race. The former governor of South Carolina is the new darling of the right, appreciated by American business circles.
On the other side, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, a conservative with shocking positions on immigration or abortion. The forty-year-old, former naval officer, has bet everything on Iowa, visiting each of its 99 counties in recent months.
“He has a good sense of leadership,” greets Ben Rummelhart, 33, who finds Donald Trump too “vulnerable” because of “all his legal troubles.”
Donald Trump would come well ahead in Iowa with 48%, ahead of Nikki Haley credited with 20% and Ron DeSantis with 16%, according to a poll from several media outlets – Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom – published on Saturday.
“Bring friends back”
Interviewed Sunday on ABC and CNN, Ron DeSantis rejected these figures.
“I think it’s very hard to poll an Iowa caucus […] even more so when it’s minus twenty” (-30°C), said the governor.
Because Ron DeSantis is counting on these Dantean weather conditions to create a surprise and eat away part of the stormy billionaire’s enormous lead.
“Our voters have the opportunity to see their vote count in a very meaningful way,” he said, because turnout “with this weather, could be considerably less (than in 2016), so everyone our supporters: bring friends and family.”
However, if Donald Trump does not obtain the triumph predicted for him in Iowa, he risks appearing much more vulnerable for the rest of the race. Because from next week, the highly orchestrated ballet of the primaries will take the candidates to New Hampshire, before Nevada and South Carolina in February.
In turn, the 50 states will vote until June to allocate their quota of delegates to the candidates for the national convention in July, which will officially nominate the Republican presidential candidate.
For Donald Trump, 77, the priority is to ensure victory before his trials begin, some of which are due to begin in March.
And the Democrats?
Already strong in the official support of his party, outgoing President Joe Biden, 81, should, barring any major surprises, be designated in August as their candidate. And this despite repeated criticism of his age.