Press at COP28 | Abandoning hydrocarbons is “playable,” says Minister Guilbeault

(Dubai, United Arab Emirates) The entry of ministers into the climate negotiations taking place at COP28 should make it possible to reach an agreement on the gradual elimination of fossil fuels, believes Steven Guilbeault.

“It’s probably going to be one of the last decisions [de la conférence] “, however warned the Canadian Minister of Environment and Climate Change on Thursday during an interview with The Press on the terrace located on the roof of his Dubai hotel, on this traditional day of break halfway through the event.

The first week of COP28 ended on Wednesday without progress on this thorny issue, but the ministers were not yet involved in the discussions at this stage, underlines Steven Guilbeault.

“It’s not the negotiators who are going to resolve this; it will be resolved at the political level,” he said, acknowledging that there are still many countries that oppose the elimination of fossil fuels.

“There are quite a few,” concedes the minister, and not the least: China, India, Russia, Saudi Arabia and even South Africa.

Some are producers, tempted to “squeeze the lemon as much as possible”, but others are simply worried about their energy security, says Mr. Guilbeault.

Not “pure and simple” abandonment

To reach an agreement, it may be necessary to say things differently, or even indirectly, suggests Steven Guilbeault. An agreement is “playable” if the text specifies that the abandonment concerns fuels which are not accompanied by measures to capture and store their emissions (unabated fossil fuels), he illustrates.

“The pure and simple elimination of fossil fuels will not happen, zero chance,” warns the minister, recalling in passing that Canada itself cannot support such a proposal for a purely constitutional reason: exploitation Since natural resources are not an exclusive federal jurisdiction, Ottawa cannot limit it.

The president of COP28, Emirati Sultan Ahmed al-Jaber, is pushing hard for an agreement to be reached, says Steven Guilbeault, because he “understands” that the success of the event depends on it.

On the other hand, the question of financing measures to adapt to climate change in developing countries after 2025 may well not lead to an agreement this year, estimates Minister Guilbeault, who nevertheless expects the discussions to move forward. .

He, who was in charge of getting rich countries to respect their commitment, made in 2009, to pay 100 billion dollars (from the United States) to developing countries between 2020 and 2025 for this purpose, affirms that it is necessary “ do better than last time.”

The amount must be based on the needs of the beneficiaries, access to the funds must be simplified and their origin must be clarified, elements which were all absent in the previous agreement, recalls the minister.

Direction to give

COP28 started with a bang, with on the first day an agreement on the creation of a fund to finance the “loss and damage” suffered by vulnerable countries, which Steven Guilbeault said he would not have believed in there. still has three months. But some observers are concerned about the vagueness surrounding the future.

At the end of the first week, the presidency normally gives “a very clear idea” of how the negotiations will take place during the second week, indicating which issues will be entrusted to ministers and which will remain in the technical negotiations, explained Jennifer Allan, strategic advisor at the International Institute for Sustainable Development.

“But none of that happened [mercredi] evening,” she was surprised.

“Over the last few days, we have asked ourselves what the presidency’s strategy is,” adds Caroline Brouillette, executive director of Climate Action Network Canada, stressing that the more political phase of the negotiations which is beginning requires that this presidency plays a more important role.

She nevertheless remains optimistic, believing that Sultan al-Jaber’s team has shown since the start of the conference that it is “a presidency which is prepared, which has done its homework and which would not let the COP fail, [alors qu’]we are closer than ever to an agreement on phasing out fossil fuels.”