Posted at 7:00 a.m.
It’s the end of a real fake suspense.
As many expected, the socialist Christiane Taubira announced on Saturday that she was in turn embarking on the race for the Élysée, in the hope of rallying a fragmented left that is losing out because of its divisions. But some see it as just one more candidacy that will add to the confusion among the voters concerned.
Traveling to Lyon, François Hollande’s former Minister of Justice said she wanted to stand “against hate speech” carried by certain far-right opponents. She expressed the wish to “take all [sa] share” in the “desperation of the French” and the “risks of social dislocation”, adding that the ecological challenge was “the affair of the century”.
The 69-year-old politician has also confirmed that she will submit to the verdict of the “popular primary”, which is to take place on the internet from January 27 to 30. Barring a twist, this citizens’ initiative is currently the last hope on the left to appoint a single candidate for the presidential election.
So far, the main candidates on the left have rejected the idea of a rally, each claiming their right to go it alone. The problem is that none seem on track to obtain a sufficient score to pass the first round of voting, scheduled for April 10.
According to the newspaper’s OpinionWay poll The echoes published on Friday, Jean-Luc Mélenchon (La France insoumise) thus collects only 10% of the voting intentions, while Yannick Jadot (Europe Ecology the Greens), Anne Hidalgo (Socialist Party) and Fabien Roussel (Communist Party) are satisfied respectively 6%, 4% and 3% support.
In contrast, right-wing and far-right candidates Valérie Pécresse (Les Républicains) and Marine Le Pen (Rassemblement national) are tied at 18%, which leaves little doubt about the announced rout of the left.
Far-right foil
Launched by two young activists, the popular primary does not belong to any political party, but obtained 300,000 support among left-wing voters. Seven candidates are officially on the list, including Mélenchon, Jadot and Roussel, despite their formal refusal to participate. Anne Hidalgo said she was in favor of it, until Jadot sent her an end of inadmissibility. In all likelihood, this “consultation” could therefore crown Christiane Taubira, who presents herself as the only strong candidate to believe in it.
One can wonder about the value of the exercise, even though its most prominent participants have not given their consent. But with more than 120,000 registered participants, its winner or its winner will be able to claim a certain legitimacy. By way of comparison, the primary of the Les Républicains party, which crowned Valérie Pécresse in December, had attracted 139,000 voters, and the primary of the Greens, 122,000.
Christiane Taubira’s campaign promises to be no less difficult. A recent Ifop / Paris Match poll gives only 4.5% to the former Minister of Justice, who has gone down in history for her active role in the adoption of the law on same-sex marriage (marriage for all) in 2013.
According to Caroline Vigoureux, political journalist at echoes and author of the book The Taubira Mystery, the Guyanese politician notably risks coming up against the conservative – even reactionary – wall of her opponents on the right and the far right, who will target her in order to better boost their own discourse.
“She knew by carrying a candidacy what she would wake up in this fringe of the political spectrum who loves to hate her”, advances Caroline Vigoureux.
According to the journalist, Christiane Taubira embodies the left in all that it has “most divisive and detestable” in the eyes of the right, in particular because of the “marriage for all”, which she supported with passion and which been one of the very strong markers of the Holland five-year term.
[Christiane Taubira] is adored on the left, but is a foil for the right and the extreme right.
Caroline Vigoureux, political journalist at echoes and author of the book The Taubira Mystery
Many also see it as just one more candidate, or even too many. This is the case of political scientist Marc Lazar, who fears greater fragmentation of the vote on the left and strongly doubts that the candidate has the ability to unite.
“Personally, I don’t believe it at all. I do not believe that it will trigger a unitary dynamic, ”says the political scientist, professor of political sociology at Sciences Po.
In the opinion of this socialism expert, Taubira will have particular difficulty in rallying the electorate of Jean-Luc Mélenchon, because of his remarkable passage to the Socialist Party.
“The voters of La France insoumise do not recognize themselves at all with her, even if she resigned at the time of the case of the forfeiture of nationality. For them, it remains associated with the government of François Hollande, which they hate and which they consider responsible for the crisis of the left, ”he explains.
A cluster of small shops
With or without Taubira, there is no doubt for Marc Lazar that the left is going straight into the wall.
This predictable failure is all the more astonishing given that social democracy is experiencing a resurgence elsewhere in Western Europe, notably in Germany, Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland, where left-wing parties are back in power, though weakened.
But the political scientist recognizes that the crisis of the French left is “more intense than elsewhere”, because of its deep divisions on “essential subjects” such as Europe, immigration, insecurity, the Republic, secularism and economic policy.
Nothing new, says Marc Lazar. The history of the left has been marked by divisions. Except that this time, no party prevails over the others. “There is no longer a dominant entity like the Socialist Party or the Communist Party,” he concludes. It is only an aggregation of small shops. »
The future will tell if Chrisiane Taubira manages to turn it into a big coop…