(Rio de Janeiro) Lula remains well ahead of voting intentions for the October presidential election in Brazil, even if President Jair Bolsonaro has narrowed the gap, according to a poll published Thursday.
Posted at 5:24 p.m.
According to the Datafolha institute, 43% of Brazilians would vote for Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in the first round, against 26% for Mr. Bolsonaro.
The gap has therefore increased from 26 to 17 points compared to the last survey of this benchmark institute published in mid-December (48% for Lula, 22% for Bolsonaro).
Datafolha nevertheless points out that the two polls are not completely comparable, given that the names suggested to the people interviewed have changed from one survey to another, with some candidates having dropped out of the presidential race.
PHOTO ADRIANO MACHADO, REUTERS
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro
The result of this latest poll carried out among 2,556 voters on Tuesday and Wednesday is similar to that published in September (44% for Lula, 26% for Bolsonaro).
Polls from other institutes had already shown in recent weeks a rise in Jair Bolsonaro, who reduced the gap to around ten points.
The Ideia institute also published a poll on Thursday, crediting Lula with 40% of voting intentions, against 29% for Bolsonaro.
For Datafolha, the other presidential candidates remain below the 10% threshold, and the option of a “third way” remains improbable for the moment.
Former anti-corruption judge Sergio Moro, former justice minister in the Bolsonaro government, comes third (8%), followed by Ciro Gomes (center left, 6%) and the center-right governor of Sao Paulo Joao Doria (2% ).
“With the failure of Moro’s candidacy, many right-wing voters have realized that the only way to avoid the return to power of the Workers’ Party (PT, of Lula) is to vote for Bolsonaro”, explains to AFP political analyst Creomar De Souza, from the consulting firm Dharma.
“Anti-PT sentiment is likely to grow in the coming months, which may put Bolsonaro back in the saddle and pose problems for Lula,” he adds. He recalls that the rejection of this left-wing party which had governed Brazil from 2002 to 2016 before being splashed by corruption scandals had played a key role in the election of Jair Bolsonaro in 2018.
The popularity of the far-right president had fallen sharply at the end of last year, with only 22% of favorable opinions.
He is particularly criticized for the way his government has handled the coronavirus pandemic, which has killed more than 650,000 people in Brazil.
The economic situation is also bad, with galloping inflation which weighs on the purchasing power of the poorest.