Turkey is called back to the polls on Sunday to end or prolong the Erdogan era which, if successful, will begin a new five-year term after two decades in power.
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Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who is completing his second presidential term, is approaching this unprecedented second round as a favorite, facing the social democrat Kemal Kiliçdaroglu.
For Emir Bilgin, 24, a textile worker who votes in the popular district of Kasimpasa, where Mr. Erdogan was born and raised, it is obvious: “I will vote Erdogan, there is no one other than him”, assures the young man. “I can’t vote for terrorists.”
On the other hand, in the residential area of Sisli, Ersin Avci, a 32-year-old seller who came among the first, hopes for “a miracle that is always possible” and the victory of the vast alliance presented by the opposition.
Lines of voters formed even before the polls opened at 8 a.m. (5 a.m. GMT) despite the pouring rain, as in the conservative district of Usküdar on the Asian side of Istanbul where the leader of the state must vote at midday, AFP journalists noted.
Mr. Kiliçdaroglu was to vote for him at the end of the morning in Ankara, the capital.
The presence of observers deployed by the opposition is particularly noteworthy, the latter having planned “five observers per ballot box”, ie a million people in total to monitor the ballot.
In Ankara, Mehmet Emin Ayaz, a 64-year-old entrepreneur, considers it “important to keep what has been acquired over the past twenty years in Turkey” under the Erdogan era. On the other hand, for Aysen Gunday, a 61-year-old retiree, “these elections are a referendum” and she chose Kemal Kiliçdaroglu.
Two visions of the country, society and governance are offered to the 60 million voters in Turkey (the diaspora has already voted) called to the polls on Sunday.
Stability at the risk of autocracy with the outgoing hyperpresident, a 69-year-old Islamoconservative; or the return to a peaceful democracy, in his words, with his opponent, a 74-year-old former civil servant.
The 49.5% of votes that Mr. Erdogan, former mayor of Istanbul and devout Muslim, collected in the first round on May 14, testified to the broad support given to him, despite the inflation, by a conservative majority.
Including in the areas devastated by the February 6 earthquake which left at least 50,000 dead and three million displaced.
Facing him, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, the “demokrat dede” – the democratic grandpa – as this trained economist with white hair and thin glasses presents himself, has not been able to capitalize on the serious economic crisis which is weighing down Turkish households and young people .
Chairman of the CHP – the party of Mustafa Kemal Atatürk, founder of the republic, he promised the “return of spring” and the parliamentary regime, the independence of justice and the press.
“We want democracy, justice, a return to old institutions, education, all that has been demolished. We very much hope that this return will happen, “said in Istanbul Zehra Edost, a 77-year-old retiree.
But Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, with 45% of the vote in the first round, looks like an outsider: despite the repeated support of the pro-Kurdish HDP, he is credited in the polls with five points behind the head of state who already enjoys a majority in parliament resulting from the legislative elections of 14 May.
“Please use your right to vote,” recalled Sunday on Twitter, from his cell, Selahattin Demirtas, figurehead of the main pro-Kurdish party HDP.
Sluggish after the first round, as if flabbergasted at not having won the victory that his side thought he had won, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu resurfaced after four days, more offensive and less smiling than the humble “Mr. Everybody” from his start to the campaign .
Lacking access to the major media and especially to the official television channels, dedicated to the president’s campaign, he battled on Twitter when his supporters tried to remobilize voters by door-to-door in the big cities.
At stake, the 8.3 million registrants who did not come on May 14 – despite a participation rate of 87%.
Faced with this discreet man of Alevi obedience – a branch of Islam considered heretical by the ultra Sunnis, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has multiplied the meetings, relying on the transformations he has been able to bring to the country since his accession to power. as Prime Minister in 2003, then as President since 2014.
Mr. Erdogan, who has already raised the minimum wage three times in one year, has multiplied his campaign generosity, such as these free scholarships promised in extremis to students in mourning after the earthquake.
The date of this second round comes ten years to the day after the start of the great demonstrations of “Gezi” which, from Istanbul, spread throughout the country. First wave of anti-Erdogan protests, they had been severely repressed.
But on Sunday, the Erdogan camp showed its confidence in preparing the speech of the outgoing president, in the evening, from the presidential palace in Ankara – and not the headquarters of his party, the AKP.
Unless there is a surprise, the results are expected on Sunday evening, and will be scrutinized by Turkey’s allies, particularly within NATO.