It is a decisive week for the French right, five months before the presidential election, with, on the one hand, the announcement scheduled for Tuesday of the candidacy of the far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour and, on the other hand, the nomination of the candidate of the Republican party, which will have a strong impact on the first round.
With an exploded left and a powerful far right according to the polls, the choice of activists from the classic right will make it possible to see the probable lines of force of the presidential election, and to adapt the campaign of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, in view of his re-election.
The Republican Party (LR), heir to the post-war Gaullist movement which was the main governing party of the Ve Republic, will open its congress on Wednesday to elect on Saturday the one who will represent it in the presidential election of 2022 (the first round of which is on April 10). The internal training campaign was strongly marked by the themes of the extreme right, such as immigration, authority or security.
At the same time, the far-right polemicist Eric Zemmour, phenomenon of this fall, who leads without confirming a pre-election campaign, will announce his candidacy on Tuesday, AFP learned Monday evening from his entourage. “It is an important week, because we will begin to see the true portrait of the presidential election take shape,” analyzes Dominique Reynié, director general of the Foundation for political innovation (Fondapol).
According to him, if The Republicans choose a very marked representative on the right, like Eric Ciotti, the new competition that would be generated with the leader of the far-right National Rally, Marine Le Pen, and with Eric Zemmour, would favor Emmanuel Macron.
This would not be the case if they opt for a more centrist candidate, such as Xavier Bertrand, Valérie Pécresse or Michel Barnier.
The latter, on a line of seriousness and appeasement, hopes that his loyalty to LR and his international stature – as a former Brexit negotiator in Brussels – will smile on him. Favorite of national polls, Xavier Bertrand relies on the authority-territories-work triptych to erase his distance from the party. Valérie Pécresse, who also left the party after the scathing defeat in the 2019 European elections, pugnaciously promises “order”, regal and economic, with a specific program in support.
Eric Ciotti’s hard line could attract the most radical at LR, while Philippe Juvin promises a right of public services.
Repercussions for Macron
According to a poll of voting intentions published on Sunday, Mr. Bertrand is the one who would obtain the best score in the first round (13%), ahead of Mr. Barnier and Mr.me Pécresse, who would be them, at 10%, scores that would theoretically allow to hope, with a good dynamic of the campaign, to hang a qualification for the second round.
In the same poll, Emmanuel Macron leads with 25% of the vote, ahead of Marine Le Pen, around 19%, and Éric Zemmour, between 14 and 15%, depending on the assumptions.
The outcome would be much more uncertain for the president if he faced a moderate candidate, unlike a configuration that would pit him against a far-right candidate in the second round, notes Mr. Reynié.
The other important element of the week will come precisely from the extreme right, Tuesday, while Eric Zemmour should broadcast on social networks a video including “a message to the French” and grant an interview to the 8 p.m. television news. private channel TF1, according to his entourage.
Omnipresent in the debate since the start of September, the polemicist saw his rating swell, to the point of raising questions about the presence of Marine Le Pen in the second round, which seemed so far acquired. But the former journalist’s pre-campaign is now encountering difficulties, with stagnant polls, rooms refusing to welcome him, a fragile organization that arouses internal criticism and disrupted trips to the provinces.