Presidential election in Türkiye | A second round necessary, a first

It is only a postponement in Turkey, where a second round will in all likelihood be needed to determine the winner of the presidential election between incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu , a historic first. The ultimate result is more than ever in the hands of the third-place candidate, Sinan Oğan.

“We are going to have 15 difficult days ahead of us in the event of a second round,” he warned on Sunday, refusing to say which candidate he would support.

The decision of Mr. Oǧan, a critic of the two main parties throughout this campaign, is difficult to predict and could tip the balance in favor of one or the other of the two camps, say the experts consulted by The Press.

“He will really be the one who will decide alone on the final result”, believes the director of the Middle East and North Africa Observatory of the Raoul-Dandurand Chair, Sami Aoun.

Especially since with nearly 95% of the ballot boxes stripped, Mr. Erdoǧan obtained 49.6% of the votes, according to the Anadolu agency – controlled by the government – ​​whose results are disputed, he says.

A volatile situation

“The situation remains volatile. If the final results give Erdoğan 49%, Sinan Oǧan’s support will not matter much. It is also likely, even with his support for the opposition, that some of his voters may vote for Erdoğan, because Sinan Oğan is a nationalist,” explains Atagün Kejanlıoglu, a McGill doctoral student from Turkey.

The slope therefore seems difficult to climb for the main opponent of the outgoing president, the leader of the opposition, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, who received 44.7% of support on Sunday evening.

The latter “must first have the support of Sinan Oğan, who is against the support of the pro-Kurdish party in Kılıçdaroğlu”, believes Atagün Kejanlıoglu. “Then he has to convince the voters that he can lead the country even if Erdoğan’s coalition has a majority in parliament. »

“If ever the voters are anxious because they feel that the opposition, which consists of six nationalist, secular, Islamist parties, will quarrel afterwards, will they say to themselves: I prefer an Erdoğan who will provide some stability? “, evokes for his part Sami Aoun.

A second round, a first

If confirmed, the holding of a second round would be a first in the century-old history of the Republic of Turkey.

Turkey’s election commission said it would not make the results public until the count is completed, but said it is releasing the results live to political parties.

This did not prevent the candidates from expressing their opinions on the results of the day, however uncertain they may be.

“If our nation asks for a second round, we gladly accept it. And we will absolutely win this second round, ”said opposition candidate Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu in the middle of the night, from Ankara, where he was surrounded by representatives of the six parties in his coalition.

Recep Tayyip Erdoǧan had just announced himself “largely in the lead”, but said he was “ready to respect” the results of a second round.

The majority of the ballots of the 3.4 million voters living abroad had yet to be counted, according to the council, which made holding a second round still uncertain.

Mr Erdoǧan, 69, has ruled Turkey as prime minister or president for more than 20 years. As the election approached, opinion polls suggested the increasingly authoritarian president was trailing slightly behind his opponent.

A surprise, tarnished leadership

These preliminary results are therefore a surprise, says Atagün Kejanlıoglu, especially since “after so many crises, Erdoğan lost only 4% of the votes”.

The race was largely centered on national issues like the economy, civil rights and the handling of the February earthquake that killed more than 50,000 people. Everything therefore pointed to a difficult campaign for Mr. Erdoǧan.

However, for the first time in his political career, the “first impression is that Mr. Erdoǧan no longer imposes himself as the master of the Turkish scene, as he has done for more than 20 years”, explains Sami Aoun. “Right now, you could say he’s in a situation where his leadership has lost some of its magic,” he adds.

As the incumbent president hoped to win another five-year term, 74-year-old Kılıçdaroğlu campaigned on a promise to return the country to a more democratic path and redress its economic situation, plagued by high inflation and the devaluation of its currency.

More than 64 million people, including foreign voters, were eligible to vote on Sunday. This year also marks 100 years since the establishment of Turkey as a republic – a modern, secular state born out of the ashes of the Ottoman Empire.

With Agence France-Presse