“The Syrians are going to leave! “From the day after the victory!” On Wednesday, Kemal Kiliçdaroglu, who seeks to dislodge Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the head of Turkey during the presidential election, whose second round of voting is played on Sunday, promised to expel Syrian refugees living in Turkey, and this, ” in the next year”.
The statement, made during a joint press conference with far-right politician Ümit Özdag, of the anti-immigration Victory Party, contrasts with the calm and unifying tone that Kiliçdaroglu had nevertheless exhibited from the start of his campaign.
But above all it comes to mark out the new path that the politician, leader of the Alliance of the Nation, a grouping of six opposition parties, has decided to take after his rather mixed result in the first round, on May 14.
A recalibration of his electoral strategy, with the approach of the final choice of voters, which aims to take advantage of the ultra-nationalist feeling which abounds within Turkish society and on which the president has bet with an appreciable score of 49.5% of the votes in the first round. What the polls did not see coming.
This turn to the right, however, remains a risky bet for the head of the opposition, which for several months embodied the hope of the Turkish democrats in order to put an end to 20 years of authoritarian rule imposed by Erdogan on the country.
“This is what he decided to do to seduce the fringe of the electorate that he failed to join in the first round”, drops from Istanbul, at the other end of the videoconference, Sinan Kirisci, a young militant for Kemal Kiliçdaroglu’s Nation Alliance, surprised by this change of direction. “He is moving away from his more progressive, more unifying, positive, warm and welcoming speech deployed in the first part of the campaign. This now places him in a delicate position where, to win votes, he now takes the risk of losing others. »
Kemal Kiliçdaroglu has not been able to take advantage of the anger of the Turks in the face of an economic climate that has been deteriorating for several months or even succeeded in exploiting the negligence of the government in place in the wake of the earthquake which struck the south of the country in February. He collected only 44.8% of the votes in the first round, on May 14.
Worse, the presence in the equation of a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, of the Ancestral Alliance, who collected 5.17% of the votes, also reduced his chances of winning the election in the second round. This openly racist political party also gave its support to Erdogan on Monday, thus mathematically increasing his chances of staying in power.
“In times of famine, it is above all hatred that feeds people, says Sinan Kirisci, and that is what these politicians have taken advantage of. We expected a clear victory for Kemal Kiliçdaroglu in the first round. This does not happen. Everything is still possible in the second round, if he manages to challenge part of the electorate of Sinan Ogan or the some eight million Turks who did not go to vote in the first round. But there is now a lot of uncertainty. On May 14, Erdogan took advantage of a lead of 2.5 million votes, in an election run by voters: the turnout was 87%.
Ümit Özdag’s Victory Party, with which Kemal Kiliçdaroglu has just signed an agreement that could place the sulphurous far-right politician at the head of the Interior Ministry in the event of a victory for the opposition, collected 2 .2% of the vote in the first round.
feeling of fear
On Tuesday, the Nation’s Alliance leader once again played on the immigration chord during a visit to the earthquake-hit city of Hatay, standing near a banner calling on voters to “decide before immigrants take over the country”, Turkish news agency Bianet reported.
In a controversial video released two days after the first round, Mr. Kiliçdaroglu claimed that 10 million Syrians had to be sent home to “protect our girls”. According to government data, there are only 3.7 million Syrians living in Turkey, under a temporary protection regime. As well as 300,000 Afghans.
In Hatay, the aspiring president however clarified his plan by speaking of a project to prepare for the return home of these refugees, “without racism”, he specified.
“It’s hard, because [Kemal Kiliçdaroglu] tried all the speeches, all the approaches, all the strategies, but he does not find a new speech, a very effective approach, a strategy which attracts attention”, wrote the political commentator Ahmet Hakan last week in the pages of the turkish daily Hurriyet. “And the voters who voted for him in the first round now have no motivation to stand at the polls in the second round. »
“The very nationalist discourse carried by the two camps, that of Erdogan and that of Kiliçdaroglu, is very worrying, said Sinan Ogan in an interview. The opposition benefited from strong support from the Kurds in the first round, but this electorate, with the change in tone of the Nation Alliance, could decide not to vote on Sunday. »
A prospect that Selahattin Demirtas, a strong figure in the pro-Kurdish HDP party, sees coming with concern from the cell where he has been imprisoned since 2016, accused of having supported an insurrection movement. On Twitter Friday, he called on his troops not to give up. “There is no third round in this case! Let’s make Mr Kiliçdaroglu president, let Turkey breathe. Go to the polls, vote! he wrote.
This possible disaffection of supporters of Kiliçdaroglu disappointed by his turn to the right, just like a possible continuation of Erdogan’s populist authoritarianism at the head of the country, can ultimately only continue to threaten Turkish democracy, considers Sinan Ogan, who said to have reduced its level of militancy in this between-two turns which is completed. “Turkish democracy is not going to disappear,” he assures us. But it can only emerge even more weakened from this election,” he concludes.