It is an open secret. This Tuesday, US President Joe Biden could formalize his candidacy for re-election for the 2024 presidential election, through a short video, several major US networks and media reported on Monday. A formal exercise, which the Democrat would have chosen to place symbolically on the anniversary of the launch of his campaign for his party’s primaries, April 25, four years ago, but which now is part of another reality for him. : the majority of Americans do not want him to run again and even anticipate with exasperation the prospect of another duel between Biden and Donald Trump, candidate for the Republican camp still well in the saddle, despite a recent indictment by justice .
On Monday, in front of pressing questions from journalists, Joe Biden confirmed that he would launch his campaign “soon”. “I told you that I was planning to get into the race and I will let you know soon,” he said without specifying the choice of the date. Neither the Democratic Party nor the White House has revealed the exact timing and format of this announcement.
NBC News’ most recent public poll indicates that 70% of Americans do not want Joe Biden to run for a second term. Conversely, 60% of those polled also believe that Donald Trump should not seek to regain the White House, indicates the same poll.
This portrait of opinion follows that drawn up by several polls conducted in recent months, while the Democratic president’s popularity rating has been in freefall for a year. Last Friday, 52.8% of voters disapproved of the work of the current president, against 42.5% saying the opposite, according to the continuous analysis conducted by the site FiveThirtyEight.
Only consolation prize for the occupant of the Oval Office: since last January, the number of Democrats who would like to see Joe Biden run again has climbed 10 points, from 37 to 47%, according to a poll conducted by Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. But a majority of 51% remains opposed to this candidacy.
A year and a half before the next presidential election in the United States, more than a third of Americans even say they are already “exhausted” at the idea of reliving the rematch between Donald Trump and Joe Biden on their screens, according to YouGov.
“Joe Biden remains the best option to ensure a victory for the Democrats,” said political scientist Allan Lichtman, who was contacted on Monday by The duty at American University in Washington. A keen observer of American politics, the academic has developed a “13 Keys” prediction system that has correctly predicted the outcome of every U.S. presidential election since 1984, including Trump’s victory in 2016. “Over the past 100 years, the ruling party has almost always lost elections,” when the incumbent president vacated a party leadership seat, forcing a nomination contest after a first term, he says.
By representing himself, Joe Biden therefore increases his party’s chances of victory. “And in the end, no matter who is going to be the Republican candidate, it is sure that the Democrats will unite behind Joe Biden”, continues Mr. Lichtman.
Even if the president’s age, 80, is often mentioned as a handicap, he does not seem to be threatened within his political formation. His announcement will see him into a limited-stakes Democratic primaries, pitting him against only two candidates registered to date: essayist Marianne Williamson, founder of the Project Angel Food food bank in California and the environmental lawyer, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., nephew of the former American president.
If re-elected, the Democrat, currently the oldest serving US president in the nation’s history, would come to the end of his second term in the White House at age 86.
“We need stability and that’s what Biden provides,” said progressive Democratic MP Jamaal Bowman, quoted by the New York Times.
In 2020, “people recognized that he was the only candidate who could defeat Donald Trump and protect American democracy,” added Rhode Island Representative David Cicilline, in the pages of the same daily. ” It’s always like that “.
According to the CBS network, Joe Biden is also preparing to appoint Julie Chavez Rodriguez, current director of intergovernmental relations at the White House, as director of his campaign for his re-election. Mme Chavez Rodriguez is one of the rare Hispanic-Americans to have high responsibilities in the inner circle of the president at the White House.
Even if he benefited from a majority of 59% of the Hispanic vote in 2020, Joe Biden must deal with a fringe of this electorate – particularly among men, with few diplomas – who are increasingly turning to the camp Republican, especially Donald Trump.