The three new Omicron subvariants that are causing an increase in infections in Europe and the United States now account for just over half of the cases in Quebec. Despite the increase in the number of cases and hospitalizations, the situation is not alarming, but it still calls for a certain vigilance.
Posted at 5:00 a.m.
Havoc in Europe
The portrait of variants has changed significantly in recent weeks. The BA.2.12.1 subvariant, which caused a surge of cases recently in the United States, now accounts for more than a third of new cases in the province, according to data from the National Institute of Public Health of Quebec (INSPQ ). Responsible for increases in several European countries, the BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants represent 16% of infections. In the UK, daily infections are again near their highest since the start of the pandemic. Italy recorded 30,526 new cases in 24 hours, from Saturday to Sunday, and an increase of 63.4% in seven days, according to the most recent report from the Ministry of Health. France is not to be outdone, with a circulation of the virus which has accelerated for ten days in mainland France, and a rate of contamination beyond 44,000 cases per day.
The pressure should increase
Quebec recorded an increase of 43 hospitalizations on Wednesday. Currently, 1084 people are hospitalized in connection with COVID-19. This represents an increase of 8% over one week. Moreover, the National Institute for Excellence in Health and Social Services (INESSS) estimates that the increase in cases observed in recent weeks should lead to an increase in the number of hospitalizations. The number of people admitted should increase to around 100 a day within two weeks. INESSS notes that this increase is due to people hospitalized because of COVID-19 and not simply to patients admitted for another reason, but who test positive for the coronavirus. After recently approaching 1,000 hospitalized patients, Quebec should have 1,378 within two weeks.
What sewage says
Given the lack of availability of PCR screening tests in the general population, the INSPQ has been publishing the results of the wastewater analysis since Wednesday in order to follow the general trend of COVID-19. Since the beginning of June, the reports of the organization show marked increases in the presence of SARS-CoV-2 in several cities, including Montreal, Quebec, Gatineau or Laval. In Quebec, wastewater collection began in the spring of 2022. The program should eventually be deployed in about fifteen municipalities. The Dr Matthew Oughton, an infectious disease specialist at the Jewish General Hospital, says there is a need to “expand access to testing” as rapid tests are “more likely to miss infections”. “In the current context, I think we need to take concrete action. For the rest, it will be necessary to be careful, especially for the elderly or with risk factors. It means wearing a mask and remaining attentive to the risk of our exposures. »
Cases on the rise
The results of screening by PCR tests, although partial and mainly concerning health care workers, continue their upward trend. Quebec reported 1,110 new cases on Wednesday, bringing the daily average to 795. The trend is thus up 19% over one week. In addition to the cases detected by PCR tests, 712 people have reported in recent days having obtained a positive result from a rapid test that they had carried out themselves. Self-reported cases, which are not included in daily reported cases, increased by 29% over a one-week period.
The consequences of reinfection
A recent preliminary study published on the Research Square platform also indicates that people reinfected with COVID-19 are at greater risk. The study suggests that reinfection with COVID-19 “contributes to additional risks of all-cause mortality, hospitalization and adverse effects on the health of the pulmonary systems”. The American researchers Ziyad Al-Aly, Benjamin Bowe and Yan Xie also note that this risk seems “obvious” in non-vaccinated people or people who have received two doses or less. Their study caused a lot of reaction in the scientific world. Quickly, some observers used it to illustrate that reinfections are not “benign”, as some claim. “We can no longer rely on previous infections to protect ourselves. There is growing evidence that Omicron’s immune response to natural infections really doesn’t provide much protection against other variants.”r Matthew Ooughton on this.