Predicting the impact of climate change on air quality

This text is part of the special Research section: climate issues

Despite the recent episodes of smog which, this summer, placed Montreal in the list of three cities with the most polluted air in the world, air quality is generally good in Quebec. But what will it be in the future? This is what the professor and researcher in environmental chemistry at the University of Montreal, Patrick Hayes, is working on, among others. With his team, he focuses on modeling the effects of climate change on air quality. He therefore studies the atmospheric particles that influence the climate in order to determine their environmental impact.

Until now, Quebec’s record is good since the laws and measures put in place in recent years by governments to reduce pollutant emissions have been conclusive. Thus, for comparison, the concentration of fine particles in Montreal in 2000 was considerably higher than that observed in 2020, notes Patrick Hayes. “There is a lot of progress, but in the future, climate change will have the effect of increasing the concentration of pollutants,” he adds. This could therefore affect air quality.

Nicole Trieu, a doctoral student at the University of Toronto, is interested, with Professor Hayes, in the composition of forest fire smoke and its toxicity. She also maintains that the increase in temperature due to global warming will lead to a greater concentration of secondary pollutants, i.e. pollutants that are created “when two primary pollutants react to the sun and stagnant air”, perhaps we read on the Government of Canada website. Among the secondary pollutants to monitor is ozone, a colorless gas that can have significant repercussions on public health if its concentration is high.

Predicting the concentration of such pollutants is one of the objectives of modeling the effects of climate change, as it allows researchers to assess and predict changes in air quality. It is therefore a model where the composition of the atmosphere, including wind, is simulated in order to study the correlation that exists between climate changes, atmospheric composition and weather conditions.

The journey of pollutants

If several pollutants are likely to harm air quality in Quebec, those caused by forest fires are not negligible. “Climate change has an impact on the frequency of forest fires and forest fires have an impact on air quality,” says Nicole Trieu. The smoke produced by these fires and the plumes of smoke have the capacity to be transported over very long distances, because the air has no borders. They can therefore travel thanks to the prevailing winds and affect people who live near forest fires, but also those who live thousands of kilometers away,” she explains.

Then, as Patrick Hayes mentions, Quebec is in a bad place since its geographical position means that it generally receives broadcasts from other provinces and the United States. In addition, since global warming has an effect on the movement of the wind, or on its circulation, forest fires will have an increasing impact on the quality of Quebec’s air.

“We must therefore resolve the problem at the source by reducing greenhouse gas emissions as quickly as possible,” indicates Patrick Hayes. How ? Using public and active transport is one of the possible solutions. Reducing our use of polluting household products and perfumes that emit volatile organic compound (VOC) contaminants into the atmosphere is also part of the daily actions that can influence the province’s air quality.

Airborne contaminants

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