“Transition” or “normalization”? Venezuela finds itself at a crossroads after the disputed presidential election of July 28, with an opposition trying to put pressure by all means on a government seeking for its part to normalize the situation.
“It’s like a road that ends in a Y: either we take the autocratic path towards the Cubanization of Venezuela, or we go towards a process of transition,” says Benigno Alarcon, a political scientist at the Andres Bello Catholic University (UCAB).
The institutional route
President Nicolas Maduro was declared the winner with 52% of the vote by the National Electoral Council (CNE), which did not provide the minutes of the polling stations, saying it was the victim of a computer hack. The opposition and many observers are skeptical.
According to the opposition, which made public the electoral documents obtained through its poll workers, its candidate Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia won the election with more than 60% of the votes.
To have his victory “validated”, Mr Maduro, who constantly brandishes the little blue book of the Constitution, has appealed to the Supreme Court, whose decisions – as it emphasises – are “final”. “Any possible ruling [de la Cour Suprême] “Any attempt to validate electoral fraud would be null and void,” said the two opposition leaders Maria Corina Machado and Mr. Gonzalez Urrutia on Wednesday in a text published on social networks.
“If they [l’opposition] “They say they have the majority, why didn’t they come with their arguments to defend them? This was a space to do it,” says Francisco Gonzalez, a lawyer and academic, convinced that Mr. Maduro won the election despite the erosion of his electorate, the “economic crisis and the sanctions.”
“The transition does not depend on public institutions,” in the hands of the government, believes Mr. Alarcon, adding that with the laws on NGOs and social networks, “the government is trying to close all physical and virtual spaces where there could be demonstrations. This is part of this repressive wave.”
Street and international pressure
“We will not abandon the streets,” vowed opposition leader Maria Corina Machado. While Saturday’s rallies were a success abroad, the protests in Venezuela were not the tidal wave the opposition had hoped for.
“The streets did not come out en masse because there is repression, fear, intimidation,” says Edward Rodriguez, a political consultant for the opposition, who believes that the diaspora gatherings “compensate” for this.
“Nobody wants to die in the street. They are there in an intimidating way. There are the ‘colectivos’ [paramilitaires]”The police, the national guards… There is psycho-terror,” says Katiuska Camargo, an activist from the Petaré neighborhood. She says that the government is crisscrossing working-class neighborhoods to intimidate and dissuade people from demonstrating.
For this reason, both Mr. Alarcon and Mr. Rodriguez agree that a “double” action is needed, from the street but also from abroad. The international community must “increase the pressure,” according to them. Mr. Rodriguez specifies that the “wave of immigration [qu’entraînerait le maintien au pouvoir de M. Maduro] is part of the equation.”
The European Union, the Organization of American States (OAS), Brazil and 22 other countries called in separate statements on Friday for the “minutes” to be published.
Brazil and Colombia have discussed new elections, a proposal rejected by both the government and the opposition. “It doesn’t make sense,” Alarcon agrees.
Violence
“Peaceful mobilizations can become violent, either because of people’s desperation or because of state repression,” Alarcon fears. “The opposition has no interest in that,” he says, stressing that any violence “would justify repression” by the government.
The announcement of Mr Maduro’s re-election for a third term sparked spontaneous protests that were brutally repressed. According to official sources, 25 people died, 192 were injured and 2,400 arrested.
For Mr Rodriguez, “this whole violent situation” has led to a “loss” of support from the opposition.
Breaking from within?
“Countries have made a transition against the institutions,” says Mr. Alarcon, recalling that in December 1957, the former Venezuelan dictator Marcos Perez Jimenez “decided not to recognize the results of a referendum: a few weeks later, a coup d’état ousted him from power. Anything can happen.”
“It is no use for a general to want to repress if those who should repress do not do so. It does not matter if the prosecutor orders arrests if the police or the courts do not do so. Sometimes, under the effect of internal and external pressure, the pyramid ends up splitting horizontally,” he adds.
Negotiations
Mr Maduro has ruled out any negotiations with the opposition, which he accuses of generating violence and wanting to carry out a “coup d’état”. Opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzalez said he was “ready for dialogue” while asking Mr Maduro to “step aside”.
“Maduro is trying to bring the country back to normal, to achieve economic normalization. His technique is attrition. The opposition’s technique is to resist,” believes Edward Rodriguez, for whom this will “result in a negotiation.” […] Maduro raises the level of negotiation, that is, more repression, more intolerance […] He increases the price to reach a point of negotiation.