The war in Ukraine is at the heart of the interrogations of the Vrai du faux junior, the meeting of verification and decryption of information carried out with middle and high school students. This week they are wondering about the risk of seeing this war spread to other countries, but also about the risk of a nuclear war. Finally, the young listeners of franceinfo are also worried about the families on the spot who are trying to escape the bombardments by hiding in air-raid shelters.
It was Yulia Shukan who answered their questions. She is a specialist in Ukraine, a lecturer in Slavic studies at the University of Paris Nanterre and a researcher at the Institut des Sciences sociales du Politique.
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Is there an immediate risk of spreading the conflict in Europe?
Many questions have been asked about the possibility of an extension of the conflict in countries other than Ukraine in Europe. “Is it true that there would be possibilities of Russian attacks in Europe?” asks Lucas.
According to Ioulia Shukan it is difficult to answer this question because “this war of Russia against Ukraine was already quite improbable“and yet it is happening right now. Nevertheless, according to the Ukraine specialist, there is a “another factor that could restrain Vladimir Putin is the fact that Ukraine, which he is attacking, is not part of NATO, whereas we, in Europe, in France and in other countries which are part of this great military alliance, we are members of it.“
Yulia Shukan explains that in this regard, “There is a mutual assistance clause between NATO countries in the event of aggression and therefore this could curb the Russian president in his expansionist intentions.“She also recalls that Vladimir Putin, in his speeches, shows”a real obsession of Ukraine, he notably denies their right to exist.“So according to Yulia Shukan, “we are rather at risk [d’attaque russe en Europe] potential and not at all in an immediate threat.“
Is a French military intervention in Ukraine possible?
The teenagers who interviewed us also wonder if the Europeans, and in particular the French, can be mobilized to intervene in Ukraine.
“Is it true, because we talk a lot about it on social networks, that France could be involved in the conflict and send soldiers to the war in Ukraine?“ asks Antoine.
The position as stated by European governments and the position of the European Union is clear, replies Yulia Shukan: “No, the EU member countries are not taking part in the war, are not sending troops, but are supporting Ukraine and therefore responding to a certain number of requests from the Ukrainian authorities, in particular concerning armaments, survival kits, relief, on the drugs that are sent. There is logistical support, but there is no commitment.“
Does the United States really scare Russians?
Lucas has a question about the impact – or not – of the positions taken by the United States on the war in Ukraine. “Is it true, he asks, that the United States frightens Russians or awes them?“
According to Yulia Shukan, the Russians “constructed this discourse of confrontation with the United States.“She reminds us that Vladimir Putin denounces every time he speaks “NATO and when he says NATO, he is thinking in particular of the United States, which is a member of the military alliance in the same way as other states.”
This opposition between Russians and Americans also dates from the Cold War, recalls Yulia Shukan with “this same confrontation between the USSR on one side and the United States on the other“. But there is a balance between the two powers which is ensured by “nuclear weapon“, estimates the specialist of Ukraine who observes that “Vladimir Putin clearly seeks to establish a dialogue with the United States at the expense sometimes of the Europeans because he considers that Russia, if it is not afraid of the United States, is as important as them on the strategic level.“
Should we fear a Third World War?
This war is often seen in the light of recent world history, which teenagers study in class. So logically, a question comes up regularly: “Is it true that Vladimir Putin can start World War III?” ask Eléna and Grégoire.
Difficult to answer this question for Yulia Shukan given the instability of the current situation. She nevertheless puts forward the hope that Vladimir Putin will take into account “a certain number of limits both from the point of view of the military potential of Russia, of the possible response if there is a world war on the part of other states and in particular the member states of NATO“. But, she adds, “he continues to advance threats and he has in particular used the nuclear threat to impose a balance of power”
Should we fear the use of nuclear weapons?
Correlated to the concerns related to the risks of a third world war, often returns, at the teenagers, the fear of the use of a nuclear bomb. “Is it true that Vladimir Putin could launch nuclear bombs?Elena asks.Is it true that Russia is one of the first nuclear countries in the world?“ adds Gregory.
Russia is indeed a “nuclear state” recalls Yulia Shukan, “it is the Soviet heritage, since the Soviet Union had nuclear weapons. Other post-Soviet states, like Belarus and Ukraine, gave up their nuclear weapons while Russia kept it, so effectively it’s a nuclear power.”
Vladimir Putin brandished the nuclear threat, but, she adds, “to resort to nuclear weapons means to destroy oneself, to destroy one’s population since there will be a response in return. I think that nuclear weapons are more there to keep us in a balance of power, as there was one at the time of the cold war, since the States having nuclear weapons established this balance and in this way, prevented any possible nuclear threat.
Does the metro serve as an air-raid shelter in major Ukrainian cities?
This war is also images that remain in the minds of adolescents, especially those showing the impact of the conflict on populations and children. “Is it true that there are people who sleep and live in the metro in Kyiv to avoid bombs?Esteban asks.Is it true that there are children and families who take shelter in the subway to be protected from the bombs ?” Elena also asks.
Indeed, confirms Yulia Shukan, “the metro has long served as an air-raid shelter, it was designed like that in Soviet times, and the Kiev metro is very deep. In any case, a number of stations are located in the city center, Kiev being built on a hilly territory and therefore the depth of the metro is great and civilians find refuge there. People can, for some, take the place on the benches, but there is not enough space and therefore people settle on the floor.“