Poor harvests will drive up the price of orange juice

(Mogi Guaçu, Brazil) With illness and extreme heat, the table is set for expensive orange juice.

The price of orange juice has always been volatile. It falls when the orange harvest is abundant and it rises when frost or a hurricane destroys the orange trees.

But current record prices could last, as diseases and extreme weather that ravage orange groves in many producing countries are not easy problems to solve.

This year’s harvest in Brazil, the world’s top orange juice exporter, is expected to be the worst in 36 years due to flooding and drought, predicts Fundecitrus, the association of citrus growers in the state of São Paulo. Not to mention an epidemic attacking orange trees. “It’s not just that the price of juice is increasing. The real worry is that there is no juice,” says Oscar Simonetti, an orange producer in Mogi Guaçu, Brazil.

Already reduced Florida orange production fell 62% in 2022-23, after hurricane Ian had decimated a harvest already damaged by a parasite. Spain, hit by drought, also saw its production drop last year.

Scarcity has caused prices to skyrocket. In the United States, a 340 ml container of frozen concentrated orange juice cost on average 42% more in April 2024 than in April 2023, according to government figures.

In the United Kingdom, where the British Fruit Juice Association says stocks are at their lowest in 50 years, the price of fresh orange juice has risen 25% over the past year, according to research firm Nielsen.

This high price alienates consumers, already burned by inflation. Orange juice consumption has fallen 15 to 25 percent in the United States, the European Union and elsewhere in the world over the past year, according to Rabobank, a bank active in food and agriculture.

Consumers are increasingly replacing orange juice with energy drinks, smoothies and other beverages, according to Jonna Parker, who tracks fresh produce sales at market research firm Circana.

Global consumption of orange juice had already declined before the recent inflation: other drinks are competing with it and consumers are becoming aware of the high sugar content of fruit juices. If this trend continues, supply and demand should balance, which would prevent further price increases, according to Rabobank. But reduced supply should support current high prices for some time.

No more orange juice in Australian McDonald’s

In some places, orange juice is completely eliminated from the menu.

In late 2023, McDonald’s Australia cited the shortage and replaced orange juice with a “fruity orange drink” containing 35% orange juice.

Morinaga Milk Industry of Tokyo plans to stop shipping its Sunkist brand orange juice – made with juice from Brazil – by the end of June. Brazilian supplies have dried up, the company says. In April 2023, Megmilk Snow Brand, of Sapporo, northern Japan, stopped offering its 1-liter and 450-milliliter cartons of Dole orange juice.

Some bottlers do without orange juice. Coldpress, a British juice producer, launched a tangerine drink in February, citing the high price of oranges.

But several large orange juice producers are keeping quiet on this subject: Dole, Tropicana, Florida’s Natural, Uncle Matt’s and Coca-Cola (which owns the Simply and Minute Maid brands) did not wish to answer the company’s questions. Associated Press.

Yellow Dragon Disease

Today’s problems have ancient roots. In 2005, an exotic insect, the Asian citrus psyllid, hit Florida. It injects orange trees with bacteria contained in its saliva, which slowly kills the tree by destroying its root system. There is no known cure.

The impact was devastating. In 2004, before yellow dragon disease (that’s its name) struck, Florida produced 200 million boxes of oranges. This year, it will produce less than 20 million.

According to Michael Rogers, professor of entomology and director of the Citrus Research Center at the University of Florida, no type of orange tree is completely resistant to this disease which causes fruits to turn green and some leaves to turn yellow. But botanists are trying to select more resistant varieties.

The epidemic arrived in Brazil around the same time as in Florida, but it was slower there because Brazilian orange groves are much larger.

The insects spread the disease by flying from tree to tree, Rogers said.

However, the disease is spreading. Fundecitrus estimates that 38% of Brazilian orange trees were infected with yellow dragon disease in 2023. Mr. Simonetti, the orange grower, estimates that 20% of his production is affected. Oranges from infected trees ripen poorly and fall prematurely, affecting the quality of their juice.

The Brazilian harvest of 2024-2025 is expected to yield 232 million boxes of oranges, a decrease of 24% compared to last year.