This text is part of the special Research section: climate issues
How to achieve net zero GHG emissions in Canada by 2050? Answering this question is not an easy task, as there are so many possible scenarios. The Trottier Energy Institute (IET) of Polytechnique Montréal, however, rolled up its sleeves to build with its partners a visualization tool, the Trajectory Explorer, allowing the comparison of possible paths towards this federal government commitment.
Achieving carbon neutrality “requires the use of technologies and energy systems that do not produce greenhouse gas emissions, as well as the capture and permanent storage of any remaining atmospheric emissions, according to the Climate Institute of Canada. In other words, Canada must eliminate as many emissions as it generates, to avoid contributing to climate change. »
To facilitate decision-making and the development of public policies, the Trajectory Explorer dashboard presents more than 140 scenarios, determined based on energy and societal compromises that could be chosen, and based on large quantities of data. “The idea is to start from a base scenario according to hypotheses such as the cost of technologies, while taking into account the uncertainties that there may be over a 40-year horizon,” explains Simon Langlois-Bertrand, partner of research at the IET. And to compare this basic scenario to all sorts of other scenarios all leading to carbon neutrality by 2050. The tool then calculates, in each sector, the savings or gains that will need to be made.
Millions of data
In terms of primary energies for example, we learn that to achieve carbon neutrality in 2050 based on the policies currently in place, Canada will need to reduce its production of crude oil (-76%) and natural gas (- 76%) and coal (-36%), and that it increases its production of renewable energies (+284%), bioenergy (+64%), uranium (+7%) and hydraulic energy (+6%). These differentials are also provided for electrical production, electrical capacity, energy consumed according to source and sector, etc. And other scenarios foresee, for example, stronger policies on the part of governments or technological developments having effects on the production of greenhouse gases in this or that sector.
Although many combinations of parameters are possible, an “analyses” section also offers pre-established scenarios. These allow less initiated people to understand the big questions and understand what are the different indicators that influence the achievement of carbon neutrality in 2050. For example, what are the consequences if we do not reduce emissions from the sector oil and gas? What happens if the price of small modular nuclear reactors is not what is expected? “Rather than focusing on broad guidelines, the tool serves to provide detailed information on distant horizons, based on very specific sectors and issues,” adds the researcher.
The results presented come from NATEM, a techno-economic optimization model developed by ESMIA Consultants. It must manage to achieve the objective of net zero emissions while respecting demand, at the lowest cost.
Constant updates
The entire project was designed and managed by the IET, with help from KashikaStudio for the graphics and interface. For Thomas Hurtut, co-founder of Kashika Studio and associate professor at Polytechnique Montréal, there is no single solution to carbon neutrality, which could be detected or calculated by an algorithm. “We must necessarily involve humans in this optimization and decision-making process,” he says. Visualization is an intuitive way to explore and compare energy scenarios and the dozens of possible parameters. »
Two objectives guided the creation of the tool, namely to guide people who have expertise or a decision-making role, but also to democratize information. “Data should be open and transparent, as often as possible,” adds François Lévesque, co-founder of Kashika Studio. It’s really important that people understand what each government decision can entail. »
The platform is also dedicated to welcoming comments from users in order to continually improve the tool, by adding new scenarios, for example. “Things change quickly, like technological transformations, which must be integrated. Our goal is to keep all of this up to date. We had been looking for a while for an intelligible way to explore all these possible trajectories, other than a 400-page written report,” says Mr. Langlois-Bertrand. Last year, the Institute therefore responded to a call for projects launched by Natural Resources Canada, the objective of which was to make more modeling results accessible online.
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