Emmanuel Macron’s camp is still looking for a head of list for the June 9 election, while the “Gabriel Attal effect” is fading in the opinion polls.
“It’s going to be carnage”, breathes a Renaissance MP while thinking of the European elections on June 9. Less than four months before the deadline, a wave of panic is sweeping through the majority troops. Monday, February 19, the Macronists’ campaign has not really started, no personality is needed to lead their list and the hoped-for “Gabriel Attal effect” is slow to be felt. Result, poll after poll, the presidential majority fails to catch up on the National Rally list, led by Jordan Bardella.
Regardless of the name of the head of the list proposed to respondents, Emmanuel Macron’s party is between 9 and 13 points behind, according to the last three polls carried out in February by Elabe (PDF file)Ifop (PDF file) and YouGov. “A small chasm which primarily reflects the national dynamic”notes, disillusioned, a ministerial advisor. “It would take a serious alignment of the planets for us to be able to match the RN in June, but we can get closer”hopes a deputy from the presidential party. “I don’t see the dynamics of the polls reversing”on the contrary gargles an RN executive, who is aiming for the bar “symbolic” 30%, ten points ahead of the majority.
“Our head of the list is Emmanuel Macron”
“There is an urgent need to take the European campaign seriously. (…) If we do not do so, our result will be half that of the RN”warned on the set of the “Grand Jury” (RTL/Paris Première/M6/Le Figaro) former Prime Minister Jean-Pierre Raffarin, support of the majority, on February 11. After a month-long sequence marked by a long two-part reshuffle and the anger of farmers, which dictated the tempo of government action, the troops are demanding a new lease of life. “We have a lot of concern about the start-up delay” of the campaign, concedes on condition of anonymity a Renaissance parliamentarian.
“The others are already anchored in the landscape, not us.”
A Renaissance MPat franceinfo
The main candidates from the different political forces have effectively put themselves in working order in recent weeks and are occupying the field: Raphaël Glucksmann for the PS, François-Xavier Bellamy for LR, Marie Toussaint for the ecologists, Manon Aubry for LFI and Marion Maréchal for Reconquest. Jordan Bardella even announced a big meeting for the official launch of the RN campaign, on March 3, in Marseille. On the other hand, the majority is struggling to structure itself and still does not have a head of list. Certainly, in 2019, Nathalie Loiseau only came out of the woods in March, but the context was very different. At the time, the Macron camp was slightly ahead in voting intentions in February, before finishing one point behind the RN on the evening of the vote.
This year, the majority had planned to formalize their top list earlier, before pushing back the deadline. But the executive is still struggling to find the right profile. MEP Valérie Hayer? Former journalist Bernard Guetta? The former government spokesperson Olivier Véran? Former Minister of Agriculture Julien Denormandie? Designating a well-identified head of the list could mobilize the Macronist electorate. But “they chose to put forward the Prime Minister, they consider that he is almost the head of the list”puts political scientist Benjamin Morel into perspective.
“I don’t believe in the leader effect. When they test different hypotheses, it varies by a small point.”
A ministerial advisorat franceinfo
“It won’t change anything, because Emmanuel Macron and Gabriel Attal will manage the campaign themselves”confirms a member of the majority. “Basically, our head of list is Emmanuel Macron, because he is both a President of the Republic who moves Europe forward and who protects France in Europe”argues Renaissance MP Antoine Armand. “The Europeans are his last fight. We have to put him in the center of the arena, make him do a [grand meeting à] Bercy”someone close to the head of state has been repeating for weeks.
An “anti-Bardella” weapon already blocked?
There are several who are banking on the commitment of the two heads of the executive in the home stretch. “The campaign is still long and the Europeans will be played in the last three weeks”, puts a ministerial advisor into perspective. With the arrival of Gabriel Attal at Matignon, presented by the majority as the perfect response to the rising popularity of Jordan Bardella, the continental ballot is being fought out more than ever on the national ring. But not everyone in the majority is convinced by the new Prime Minister’s contribution: “Between the storytelling of Gabriel Attal and that of Jordan Bardella, the French will choose that of Bardella“, breathes a Macronist elected official.
In five weeks in Matignon, “the anti-RN weapon” seems to have stopped, at least in opinion polls. The Prime Minister’s approval rating, observed by Ifop-Fiducial for Sud Radio and Paris Matchdrop of four points in one month, from 51% to 47%. “The average duration of popularity of a Prime Minister under the Fifth Republic is very short”, warns political scientist Benjamin Morel. This little survey alert comes as the Prime Minister increases his trips to the field: to farms, to construction sites, to people affected by the floods in Pas-de-Calais… A permanent agitation which is coupled with a frantic desire to‘”to assume” the political choices made since his appointment.
Beyond this offensive communication, some question the direction taken by the executive. “On paper, the majority has a strategy, but it is poorly executed. We see a lot of mistakes”, continues Benjamin Morel. According to him, the departure of Elisabeth Borne and the arrival of Gabriel Attal were intended to “solve the sequence of the immigration law and open a new page of the five-year term”. On the method, the government now wishes to favor the regulatory and non-legislative route to act quickly, in various areas, such as Education. He is also banking on the dynamics of the Europeans to maintain the unity of the presidential camp.
But the shift to the right by Gabriel Attal’s government, associated with the difficult sequence of the reshuffle, which notably saw François Bayrou publicly express fundamental disagreements, weakened the plans. The majority seems more and more divided, as illustrated by the transfer of two deputies from the Renaissance group to that of Horizons, the party of Edouard Philippe, revealed by Le Figaro . And some parliamentarians are tense at the government’s choice to put Parliament in the background.
“Our adversaries are idiots”, laughs the RN
At the same time, some parliamentarians express discomfort with the change in attitude of the executive towards the RN. When she was at Matignon, Elisabeth Borne insisted on the need to seek alliances “within the republican arc” in the National Assembly, excluding without naming them La France insoumise and the extreme right. “I consider that the Republican arc is the Hemicycle”defends for his part Gabriel Attal, in comments reported at the beginning of February by The world .
“It’s normal that Gabriel Attal treats [prenne en compte] the RN, but he does not ask us to compromise with them.”
A Renaissance MPat franceinfo
“I think that we have greatly overinterpreted the comments about the RN. I see them, basically, as a validation of their representation in bodies such as the ‘Saint-Denis meetings’ or the office of the National Assembly” , evacuates Mathieu Lefèvre, another Renaissance deputy. Emmanuel Macron himself judged “complitly normal” that he can “have discussions” with the RN in the Assembly. “I don’t understand our adversaries’ strategy of talking about us 24/7, they are idiots, smiles an RN executive. They put us at the center of the game every time. (…) People still talk about us and quite well, they are obsessed with us.”
Beyond words, the far-right party sees in the vote on the immigration law, significantly tougher compared to the initial text, the validation of part of its ideas. “We are the pivotal group every time”, adds the RN executive cited above, who is delighted to see the majority displaying weaknesses before the European elections. For the presidential camp, there are less than four months left to avoid a rout.