Encouraged by the latest Léger poll, the Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) says it senses a “craze” in its favor among the population.
According to this Léger opinion survey published in the Quebecor media on Wednesday, a PLQ headed by former federal minister Pablo Rodriguez would be first in voting intentions, but if elections took place now, it is the Party Quebecois (PQ) who would form the government.
The few CAQ members who commented on the poll suggested that they were continuing their work and that the next general election was only two years away.
“I am not worried, there is plenty of time,” commented the Minister for the Economy, Christopher Skeete, before going to his caucus meeting.
The needle would therefore move if the activists choose Mr. Rodriguez at the end of the race in June 2025: the Liberals led by Mr. Rodriguez would collect 28% of voting intentions, compared to 26% for the Parti Québécois, while the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) would arrive just behind.
“We see that there is enthusiasm, people are following the next race with great interest,” commented the liberal parliamentary leader, Monsef Derraji.
He reacted cautiously, without favoring one candidate over another, given the duty of neutrality imposed on him by his role as a parliamentary officer.
However, he said that on the ground, the rooms were filled with sympathizers during around ten regional conferences organized by the group.
“People want to get a membership card because they think they will have a say in choosing the next leader of the Liberal Party. And we’re not going to hide it, Quebecers also want a leader of the Liberal Party who probably risks being the premier of Quebec. »
Rodriguez well ahead of Coderre
Léger also surveyed more specifically those who identify as liberal. A third of them would favor Pablo Rodriguez, compared to 14% for former Montreal mayor Denis Coderre, 6% for Marc Bélanger, 5% for Charles Milliard and only 1% for MP Frédéric Beauchemin.
Former president of the Federation of Chambers of Commerce of Quebec, Charles Milliard already has the support of three deputies from the Liberal caucus, André Fortin, Madwa-Nika Cadet and Virginie Dufour, against only one for Mr. Rodriguez (Désirée McGraw), but it does not seem to attract the support of activists.
” He [Charles Milliard] starts in politics,” pleaded Mr. Fortin in the press scrum to justify his low percentage of support.
Mr. Fortin assured that he made the right choice with Mr. Milliard because he brings “renewed economic leadership, a little different. His professional background brings something different to the PLQ.”
But if a general election took place currently, with the forces present, the poll gives the PQ winning for the umpteenth time in a year, since practically the complementary in Jean-Talon.
The party of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon would thus collect 32% of the votes, against 24% for the CAQ, 17% for the liberals of interim leader Marc Tanguay, 14% for Québec solidaire and 12% for the conservatives of Éric Duhaime.
“The Parti Québécois is clearly in the lead, indeed Pablo Rodriguez could change things, but there is no certainty, that does not mean that he is the one who will win,” commented PQ MP Pascal Bérubé, in the press scrum.
“But here, I am not going to find that it is negative that we are in first place currently,” he added.
The Caquists were quite laconic on the survey. “We govern, we work every day to improve services to Quebecers,” said Mr. Skeete.
“There are still two years left, we are working hard,” said the CAQ member for Lac-Saint-Jean, Éric Girard, one of the rare CAQ elected officials who ventured to comment on the poll which was rather disadvantageous for his party.
This Internet survey was carried out between last Friday and Sunday among 1,041 Quebecers aged 18 and over, recruited randomly from an online panel.
The margin of error cannot be calculated from such a type of sample, but for comparison, the maximum margin of error for a sample of 1036 respondents would be plus or minus 3%, 19 times out of 20 , said Léger.