The CAQ now has more federalist than independentist voters. To be convinced of this, it is enough to observe how the supporters of François Legault would vote in the federal elections, says pollster Jean-Marc Léger.
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• Read also: Usefulness of the Bloc Québécois: “I think that Mr. Legault has slipped,” says Gilles Duceppe
Last Tuesday, Prime Minister François Legault caused a surprise by questioning the usefulness of the Bloc Québécois.
“What is the point of the Bloc Québécois in Ottawa? It’s used for? What’s the point?” he asked the PQ leader, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, urging him to help him in his efforts with the federal government to reduce the number of asylum seekers on the territory. Quebecois.
The passing of arms prompted pollster Jean-Marc Léger, president of the Léger firm, to look into the allegiances of CAQ voters on the federal scene, since the rise of the Parti Québécois.
Disaffection of the Bloc members
And the observation is striking. In June 2022, CAQ voters mainly supported the Bloc Québécois, while 45% of them said they were voting for Yves-François Blanchet in the federal elections.
- Listen to the interview with Gilles Duceppe who defends the Bloc Québécois via QUB :
Justin Trudeau’s Liberals received the favor of 33% of CAQ supporters, while the federal Conservatives, without a permanent leader at that time, only received 12% of the vote.
In February 2024, the picture is now completely different. Justin Trudeau’s troops today have the support of a majority of CAQ voters, with 42% who would vote for the PLC if elections were held today.
The Bloc Québécois, for its part, moved into second position, with 31% of the vote. The CCP still comes third, with 20%.
The sovereignist exodus
For Jean-Marc Léger, these data illustrate the sovereignist exodus within the coalition which brought François Legault to power twice.
The PQ voters returned to the fold, increasing the PQ’s support from 15% to 32%, while the CAQ saw its results drop accordingly, notes the pollster. “It’s a direct CAQ-PQ transfer,” he underlines. Now, a third of the CAQ vote is pro-independence, compared to around 40% of federalists, adds Mr. Léger.
As a result, François Legault’s party now appeals mainly to Liberal voters, who no longer find themselves in the Liberal Party of Quebec, currently without a leader in title.
- Listen to the Lisée – Montpetit meeting with Jean-François Lisée and Marie Montpetit via QUB :
“The Liberal Party is so weak among French-speakers in Quebec that they found themselves orphans and went to the CAQ,” says Jean-Marc Léger. It’s the others who are still staying, they haven’t transferred, like with the PQ.”
For the pollster, the race for the leadership of the PLQ, which will conclude in the spring of 2025, therefore represents a danger for François Legault’s party, if the future liberal leader succeeds in rallying voters who have deserted since 2018.
“The luck of the CAQ currently is the weakness of the Liberal Party [du Québec] and the fact that they made a bad decision by postponing the leadership race so late that it will leave them little time to get this vote which, in theory, is made up of ex-liberals,” says Jean -Marc Leger.
“Captain Canada”
However, the pollster does not go so far as to say that the Legault government is adapting its political discourse to please federalists more.
Yes, the CAQ ministers present themselves as defenders of Quebec in the federation. Superminister Pierre Fitzgibbon even said that François Legault would make a better “Captain Canada” than Denis Coderre to block a new referendum on the independence of Quebec.
But at the same time, the CAQ also blithely criticize the Trudeau government, particularly on the issue of asylum seekers.
“They sometimes hit a left shot, sometimes a right shot. In the short term, since 2018, it has worked. But there, the fact that their nationalist wing is deserting, that unbalances the party,” summarizes Jean-Marc Léger.
Methodology: Survey carried out by the Léger firm for the Canadian Press, from February 16 to 18, 2024, among 1,529 Canadians and 1,000 Quebecers (including 847 who expressed their voting intentions). The June 2022 survey questioned 1,042 respondents, including 844 voters.
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