The publication by Elections Canada of a new projection of seats in the House of Commons relaunches the debate on the political weight of Quebec in Canada like never before. A debate as old as the country, but which arises even more acutely this time.
First, it must be said, the projection made by Elections Canada is not final. It only applies the census results as mathematically as possible to the electoral map. This proposal has always been the subject of political intervention and it is normal that it is so.
In the proposed new distribution, Quebec would lose 1 seat and only have 77, while Alberta would gain 3 and Ontario and British Columbia, 1 each. The House of Commons would drop from 338 to 342 seats. Quebec would then have 22.7% of the seats for 22.5% of the population, which is fair representation in an exercise that is not always fair.
But it is clear that Quebec’s political weight is steadily declining within Canada, dropping from 36% of the seats at Confederation to 27.6% in 1966, to 24.9% in 1999 and to 23.8%. in the electoral map used for the last elections.
Obviously, this loss of political power has always been part of the arguments of the sovereignist movement. But it was also at the heart of the concerns of several politicians all that is more federalist. Among these, Robert Bourassa made it a real obsession.
Mr. Bourassa was the last premier of Quebec to participate in major attempts to reform the Canadian Constitution, namely the Meech Lake Accord of 1987 and that of Charlottetown of 1992.
In both cases, one of his major demands was to preserve Quebec’s political weight. In the case of the Meech Lake accord, it went through immigration. This would have constitutionalized the administrative agreement that allowed Quebec to select its immigrants, both abroad and in Canada.
But it also provided for the federal government to guarantee Quebec “a number of immigrants, including refugees, proportional to its share of the Canadian population, with the right to exceed this figure of 5% for demographic reasons. “.
In Charlottetown, five years later, Mr. Bourassa had accepted a reform of the Senate providing for the equality of the provinces in return for a formal guarantee of 25% of the seats in the House of Commons, regardless of the evolution of demographics.
He also considered that this was undoubtedly the most important gain for Quebec from the entire Charlottetown accord, which was defeated – and not only in Quebec – in a cross-Canada referendum. For Robert Bourassa, clearly, immigration was one of the keys to maintaining Quebec’s political weight within Canada.
We have not heard from Prime Minister François Legault on this issue over the past week. But we will have heard about immigration. Here is what he said in the opening speech of the session to the National Assembly:
“It’s very important, we have to respect Quebec’s integration capacities. Our immigration system must be adapted to the unique realities of a francophone nation in North America. The federal government must finally understand this. Quebec cannot have the same immigration model as that of English Canada. The survival of French requires a different approach. “
However, in this same inaugural speech, the issue of the labor shortage was in the background to almost all aspects of government activity: in health, education, early childhood and childcare. economic recovery in general.
Many people, especially on the business side, but also elsewhere in Quebec society, tell the Prime Minister that we cannot do without immigrants to counter the labor shortage. Since the start of his mandate, and even if the shortage is increasing, he has not budged. However, this is Mr. Legault’s opinion, there is nothing to indicate that we cannot do more to integrate newcomers if we put the required resources and effort into it.
You cannot compartmentalize files when you are Prime Minister. The question of immigration also necessarily affects Quebec’s political weight in Canada.
This was understood by Robert Bourassa and many other prime ministers after him who wanted more powers over immigration, but without decreeing that Quebec’s capacity for integration had been reached and could not be reviewed. .
“It’s a test for Justin Trudeau,” Legault said on Friday. But it is also a test for him. In the missions of a premier of Quebec, there is necessarily that of helping to preserve Quebec’s political weight in federal institutions.
And we can only note that at this time, Mr. Legault is applying policies that will have opposite effects.