As we mark Justin Trudeau’s 10th anniversary as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada (PLQ) this weekend, many are wondering if he will want to seek a fourth term as prime minister. The question is important because historically, Liberal leaders have not always known when to leave.
In fact, many will have done what can be called the “excess mandate”. A leader clings to power a little too long and at the same time destroys the chances of a popular wannabe waiting his turn.
Call it Prince Charles Syndrome. The heir apparent waits so long before ascending the throne that he ages badly and can hardly embody renewal when his turn comes. Often he will lead his party to defeat.
Thus, Pierre Trudeau had a designated successor in the person of John Turner, his former Minister of Justice and Finance, whom many Liberal activists still saw in their soup, even though he had left politics.
After the 1979 defeat, Trudeau senior had resigned, but had been acclaimed by his caucus when the Clark government had been defeated on its first budget, and Trudeau would be re-elected in 1980 for a fourth term. The mandate of too much…
When Pierre Trudeau resigned on February 29, 1984, the leadership race was triggered and John Turner succeeded in his return to politics by defeating Jean Chrétien in a strongly contested leadership convention.
But Turner is rusty after nearly a decade at a major Bay Street law firm in Toronto. Above all, he missed some changes in the political world. Among other things, he provoked controversy by slapping a candidate and the president of the party on the buttocks.
Turner would leave the leadership of the Liberal Party after two electoral defeats and a leadership race would take place in 1990.
Even though he left politics five years earlier, Jean Chrétien will be a candidate. But he is no longer exactly the figure of renewal, he who had been appointed minister for the first time by Lester Pearson three decades earlier. His opponents call him “Yesterday’s man”.
Chrétien would beat his main opponent, Paul Martin, quite easily, but the race between the two men would deeply divide the Liberal Party, particularly in Quebec, for more than a decade.
Some have even claimed that Jean Chrétien decided to seek a third term as prime minister essentially because Martin’s supporters were trying a little too hard to push him out.
Chrétien will finally resign in 2003 and Martin will literally be elected leader of the Liberal Party. But as soon as he arrives, he will receive the Auditor General’s report on what is already known as the sponsorship scandal. Paul Martin will never recover from this toxic legacy he received from his predecessor.
This scandal – in which Martin was not involved – will undermine his mandate despite the re-election of the Liberal government, but a minority this time, in June 2004. He will lose a vote of confidence in the Commons at the end of 2005 and will be defeated by Stephen Harper in the January 2006 elections.
The image of the Liberal Party will remain tarnished for years, and neither Michael Ignatieff nor Stéphane Dion will be able to beat Stephen Harper’s Conservatives.
But, as we can see, many of the problems of the PLC for several years will have stemmed from leaders who did not know how to bow out at the right time. Those who have done the term too many…
After 10 years at the head of the Liberals, Justin Trudeau does not have to be ashamed of his record. It should be remembered that he became leader of a party which was the third parliamentary group in the Commons with barely 35 deputies.
He quickly understood that the growing division of Canadian politics demanded that he make a turn to the left in the Liberal Party, the best example of which was the abandonment of the zero deficit which had become a veritable dogma in the years Chretien and Martin.
But after eight years in power, fatigue begins, as is often the case, to settle in the electorate. And the issue of Chinese interference in Canadian politics – including, though not at all the same issue, the Trudeau Foundation mess – increasingly gives the impression that the government has something something to hide. And it is becoming more and more inevitable that there will be a public inquiry into this issue.
All of this might give Trudeau pause, though he currently gives no indication that he might decide his third term will be his last.
One thing is certain, many talented ministers who could be interested in his succession will not want to play the role of Prince Charles for long if Mr. Trudeau were to decide to serve one more term, which could well become one term too many.