The scenario has been circulating a lot since the victory of Bloc leader Louis-Philippe Sauvé in the LaSalle–Émard–Verdun by-election. Could we be at the start of a new move by Quebecers towards sovereignty, a bit like after the victory of Gilles Duceppe in the Laurier–Sainte-Marie by-election in 1990?
The scenario is circulating a bit in Quebec and, to tell the truth, particularly in certain English-speaking circles, where certain seasoned observers of the political scene openly say that we must prepare for a new referendum within two or three years.
It is true that there are similarities between the two situations. Mr. Duceppe had won in a by-election a riding which was then a Liberal stronghold, just like LaSalle–Émard–Verdun.
It is also true that we have been talking more about the sovereignty of Quebec in recent months than since the 1995 referendum. The attitude of the leader of the Parti Québécois, Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, who put sovereignty at the center of his speech party, is obviously not unrelated to this situation.
The PQ has been leading voting intentions in Quebec for several months and the Bloc Québécois is also in the lead, and in a minority government situation, this is even more significant.
But that’s where the similarities end.
The Bloc’s victory in a liberal stronghold is good news for this party, but it is not necessarily a harbinger of a new debate on sovereignty.
Mr. Sauvé won with 28% of the vote and a majority of around 200 votes over his Liberal opponent in a three-way fight with the NDP candidate not far behind.
At the time, Mr. Duceppe won with 66.9% of the votes (for the record: against a certain Denis Coderre) and a majority of 12,000 votes. The election was historic because it provided the momentum and legitimacy necessary to launch this new political party which would be called the Bloc Québécois. In addition to revealing a very talented politician, Gilles Duceppe, who would become its leader for 15 years.
There is a major difference on the advisability of holding a referendum on sovereignty between the current situation and that of 1990. After the failure of the Meech Lake Accord – which had not been ratified by Newfoundland and Manitoba – and the election of Jean Chrétien as leader of the Liberal Party of Canada, the option of sovereignty was on the rise. To the point that several important groups of civil society began to demand a new referendum on sovereignty.
Today, the least we can say is that there is a lack of enthusiasm for holding a new referendum. In fact, it would be quite the opposite. The latest Léger poll reported that only 35% of Quebecers would vote Yes, compared to 56% for No.
There is also a big difference between the leaders of the movement. Without taking anything away from Paul St-Pierre-Plamondon and Yves-François Blanchet, it is difficult to compare them to Jacques Parizeau and Lucien Bouchard, who were to lead the Yes camp to victory in 1995.
But the big difference with the situation which preceded the 1995 referendum is the attitude of Quebecers themselves. Remember that the Meech Lake Accord was the Brian Mulroney government’s response to its electoral promise to bring Quebec back into the constitutional family “with honor and enthusiasm”.
The result was somewhat disappointing, but at least there was recognition of the specificity of Quebec through an article affirming that Quebec was a “distinct society” within Canada.
But the echoes of English Canada during this period often flirted with the worst prejudices against Quebecers and even French speakers in general. The rejection of the Meech Lake Accord was experienced by many Quebecers as a rejection of Quebec itself.
Many people who followed the news at all during this period had a “Meech moment”, a sort of break with what was being said in English Canada. Mine? It was hearing the president of the Manitoba Women’s Federation say, in a parliamentary committee, that the “distinct society” clause would allow the Quebec government to force women to have children.
All this to say that there was a secret anger in Quebec at that time and the 1995 referendum was, at least in part, the way of expressing this anger.
We are almost 30 years later. And it is far from obvious that the conjunction of factors which brought the sovereignists within a hair of victory still exists.
30 years ago, there was a popular will that demanded a referendum on sovereignty as the means by which Quebec would respond to the rejection of this low-cost compromise that was the recognition of a distinct society.
It’s hard to think that we could recreate these circumstances today.
What do you think? Express your opinion