political stake in Turkey, necessity for Egypt

Ukrainian grain exports are on the menu at a conference in Geneva, Switzerland, Monday (March 13). Senior Russian and United Nations officials discuss the renewal of an agreement, reached on July 22, 2022 between Ukraine, Russia, Turkey and the UN. The text, which expires on Saturday March 18, has allowed the export of more than 24 million tonnes of cereals from the Black Sea despite the war, according to the United Nations.

In Turkey, a political boon for President Erdogan

Turkey plays a central role in this agreement. Ankara organized the negotiations between kyiv and Moscow in the summer of 2022, thanks to the trust placed in it by the two belligerents. The Turkish authorities indeed support Ukraine, by delivering drones to it, but do not apply sanctions against Russia. And the deal, which has allowed the import of more than 2.6 million tons of Ukrainian agricultural products into the country since the summer, also directly benefits President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Candidate for his re-election in two months, he was able to strengthen his image with the Turkish people, highlighting his work as a mediator, as well as his role in solving the world food crisis. “Together, we will contribute to the prevention of the risk of famine which threatens billions of people in the world”, he said. But so far, only 11% of shipments have been exported to Africa.

In Egypt, an essential agreement to feed the country

Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer with 12 million tonnes received each year, 80% of which comes from Russia and Ukraine, needs the agreement renewed. In the country of 110 million people, 70% of the population benefits from subsidized bread. If the text is not renewed, the government will have to find solutions. The first, urgent, would be to continue to forge partnerships for grain deliveries with India or the European Union. The second would be to increase its wheat production: the Ministry of Agriculture is targeting seven million tonnes produced in 2023, compared to four in 2022. Finally, Egypt should also increase its storage capacity by 10%, thanks to grants of 60 million euros via the French Development Agency.