Pressure from public opinion and the international community to obtain a truce in Gaza between Israel and Palestinian Hamas, as well as the release of Israeli hostages, is causing turmoil within the Netanyahu government and the political class.
An agreement to free the hundred hostages still held by the Palestinian Islamist movement and its allies is under study, on the basis of a proposal made following a meeting last weekend between American representatives, Israelis, Qataris and Egyptians.
The American Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, is expected in the region in the coming days to discuss the project and silence the weapons in the Palestinian territory, today “uninhabitable” according to the UN.
But the far right, a member of the majority, says it will overthrow the government if an agreement involves an end to the war. “We will not accept a situation in which Hamas wins,” National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir declared on Wednesday: “No to an immoral agreement! »
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is trying to keep a fragile coalition afloat, one of the most right-wing and most religious in Israeli history, according to analysts consulted by AFP.
“I think that, due to public pressure”, the government “will accept a form of exchanges” between Palestinian prisoners and Israeli hostages, believes Israela Oron, of Ben-Gurion University of the Negev: “Netanyahu is trying to prepare his coalition for this agreement.”
Unlikely burst
Opposition leader Yair Lapid proposed an alternative, saying he would agree to an end to the fighting if it led to the release of the hostages.
“I am not prepared for the hostages not to be released for political reasons. So we will do what is necessary,” he assured Channel 12: “If we have to enter the government […]we will enter the government.”
But an interview between MM. Netanyahu and Lapid, scheduled for Thursday, was canceled, removing the prospect of an opening between the two men. And the hypothesis of seeing far-right ministers leaving the government remained improbable, according to experts.
“I do not see the extreme right tearing apart a government which constitutes […] the culmination of their careers so far” and an opportunity to govern that is unlikely to arise again in the future, argues Reuven Hazan, professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
The first truce in November lasted a week, allowing the release of around a hundred hostages against three times as many Palestinian prisoners held by Israel. Hamas this time announced a three-phase proposal, including a six-week pause in fighting, with possible extension.
During this period, Israel will have to release 200 to 300 Palestinian prisoners not held under high security, in exchange for 35 to 40 hostages held captive in Gaza, said a Hamas source close to Egyptian mediators. and Qataris.
“Not at any price”
Only “sick women, children and men over 60” detained in Gaza will be able to be released, this source told AFP. 200 to 300 humanitarian aid trucks will also be able to enter the Gaza Strip every day.
Mr. Netanyahu must prove that the hostage issue is a priority for his cabinet, without appearing to give in to pressure from Hamas.
He indicated on Wednesday that he was ready for an agreement “but not at any price”, adding: “we will not take soldiers out of Gaza, we will not end the war, we will not release thousands of terrorists” .
The war broke out on October 7 when Hamas commandos infiltrated from Gaza carried out an unprecedented attack on Israeli soil, which left around 1,163 dead, mostly civilians, according to a new AFP count based on data Israeli officials.
Some 250 people were kidnapped, around a hundred of whom were released at the end of November. According to Israeli authorities, 132 hostages remain held in Gaza, of whom 27 are believed to have died.
In response, Israel vowed to “annihilate” Hamas, in power in Gaza since 2007, and launched a military offensive which left more than 27,000 dead, the vast majority civilians, according to the movement’s Ministry of Health.
“If I had earned a dollar for every time the far right had threatened to leave the government, I would be on a sunny vacation at the beach,” says Reuven Hazan ironically: “I expect them to express their dissatisfaction, but between that and leaving the government, there is room.”