No one could have predicted that an increase in the price of liquid gas at the start of the year would plunge Kazakhstan into a political and social crisis such as the country had not experienced in 30 years of independence. In the space of a few days, thousands of demonstrators stormed and set fire to many highly symbolic public buildings in Almaty, the economic capital of the country, including the town hall, the presidential residence, the offices of the political party. in power as well as those of the Ministry of Justice, in addition to taking temporary control of its airport (not to mention the looting of the city’s armories). So far, around 20 police officers have been killed by protesters (authorities said three of them had been beheaded) in addition to several dozen others injured.
Faced with this uprising, the government’s response was not long in coming. If the government has agreed to make concessions to individuals who have demonstrated peacefully against the rise in gas prices, it has however been intractable in front of those who have chosen violence, and the images unveiled on the Internet show that the Kazakh security forces opened fire on the demonstrators, claiming an unknown number of victims.
But what is this sling hiding against rising gas prices? Is Kazakhstan going through a color revolution, like those that rocked Ukraine and Belarus? Should we rejoice in the West at this awakening of a people locked up for thirty years in an authoritarian regime? After all, important (but peaceful) protests for the democratization of the regime had taken place after the last presidential election, which confirmed Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in his presidential post following the resignation of the country’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. . So is the current movement just a continuation of what was started several months ago?
In my opinion, we must avoid associating recent events with a pro-democracy movement. Rather, it is more of a movement of anger on the part of a population that has become impoverished in recent years due to the economic sanctions imposed on Russia and the coronavirus pandemic. From this anger was born a large-scale violence, but it also exposed the frustrations and dreams of those left behind in the society from whom a worrying radicalism exudes which would in no way contribute to an improvement in living conditions. Kazakh citizens, but would rather lead to a decline and the imposition of an even worse leaden than that which has existed for thirty years.
In addition to the demands aimed at regulating the prices of gas and other essential commodities, the reduction of the age of eligibility for old-age pensions and the increase in the basic income of the population, the protestors’ list of complaints is also mention of elements associated with radical Islamism and an intolerance of behavior taxed as too liberal, in particular the legalization of polygamy and the prohibition of unions with non-Kazakh citizens. These demands illustrate a fundamental religious and extremist trend that has developed in recent years, which has seen thousands of Kazakhs (up to 4,000, according to estimates) choose jihad alongside the Islamic State Group in Syria and which clashes enormously with the slow liberalization of the country since 1991, which deserves to be welcomed.
This is the reason why many Kazakhs, who are very critical of the regime and who are openly in favor of democratizing the regime, have not hesitated to openly dissociate themselves on social networks from the individuals who are hiding behind the demonstrations. of the last days. Although they share their observation regarding the significant inequalities in the country, they know full well that these do not lead a fight for freedom and democracy.
It is therefore important to separate the wheat from the chaff before blindly saluting a violent popular movement simply on the pretext that it opposes a regime deemed undemocratic. Seen from Canada and elsewhere in the West, this movement looks like a color revolution, which is not to say that it really is.