Amplifying the pressure on Russia while minimizing the collateral damage on the Twenty-Seven is the difficult balance that the European Union is trying to find with its sixth package of sanctions. Brussels is preparing “smart penalties” against Russian oil imports, the British daily reported on Monday April 25 The Times, quoting European Commission Vice-President Valdis Dombrovskis. At the center of the discussions, the question of an embargo on Russian oil. Germany and Poland are preparing, in any case, to operate their economy without the black gold coming from Russia.
In Germany, no more imports of Russian oil by the end of the year
Germany, despite its strong dependence on oil from Russia, seems on the verge of taking the step of the embargo. This was confirmed after much procrastination by the German government, the Minister of Foreign Affairs during a visit to the Baltic countries. Annalena Baerbock has made a promise: no more Russian oil imports by the end of the year. This is the result of external pressure, the much more dependent Baltic countries have already stopped their imports of Russian hydrocarbons.
Increasing pressures are also being felt internally. “More money for Russian oil and gas. More trade with Russia. We must stop funding Russia’s bloody war”, could be heard in a recorded speech during a pacifist demonstration a few days ago in Berlin. Before protesters on Berlin’s main avenue demand an embargo on Russian gas and oil. Germany, which imports a third of its oil consumption from Russia, will reduce its consumption by half by the summer before completely stopping Russian imports by the end of the year.
This will not be an easy task because Germany is the second country importing oil from Russia. the Minister of the Economy is already encouraging businesses and households to lower their consumption and invest in electricity. Germany, like the rest of Europe, will turn to the other OPEC countries to make up for the shortfall. But the industry is warning of a spike in gasoline prices and economists are divided. Some point to the risks of plant closures in chemicals or hydrocarbon processing. Others highlight History with a capital H and a limited case compared to a war and its financing by German capital. Germany says it is dependent on Russian gas until the summer of 2024.
Poland pleads for the “derussification” of the European economy
Poland is one of the strongest supporters of tough sanctions against Russia. In absolute terms, the Polish nationalist government calls for an end to all imports of Russian hydrocarbons. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki was the first to speak about “derussification” of the European economy. At every press conference, he stresses the importance of stopping funding “the war machine” of Vladimir Putin. In the absence of a European embargo, Poland proposed a month ago to tax Russian hydrocarbons so that it would no longer be as advantageous as before for importing countries to buy them. Warsaw says it wants to make trade and economic rules on the European market fair.
It would seem that Poland’s voice has been heard since in its new sanctions package against Moscow, the sixth, the European Commission is allegedly considering the imposition of customs duties on oil exports above a certain ceiling of price.
According to statements by Mateusz Morawiecki, Poland wants to end its imports of Russian oil by the end of the year. However, the objective seems difficult to achieve because according to 2020 figures, Poland was the 3rd country in the European Union most dependent on Russian oil. Two-thirds of its imports came from Russia. The Polish government is however confident and thinks it can meet its objective because Poland has the necessary infrastructure on the Baltic Sea to import oil by sea. She already does. The tankers arrive in particular from Norway and Angola. But the list of suppliers can grow. We are talking in particular about the United States, Venezuela, but above all about Saudi Arabia and Iran. Concerning the latter two, the oil policy will however depend on their proximity to Moscow.