The author is a former conservative strategist. He was a political adviser in the Harper government as well as in the opposition.
Pierre Poilievre is now leader of the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC). He has several challenges ahead of him. He must solidify his relationship with the caucus and maintain party unity following a run that has revealed rifts within the Conservative family. Another crucial element to which he will have to tackle as he travels across the country: planning the recruitment of ministerial candidates in a future Conservative government.
It is unclear how long the pact between the Liberals and the NDP will hold and when the next election will take place, but the deadline is as inevitable as it is unpredictable with a minority government. The new leader must be prepared for all scenarios, and he cannot underestimate the need to recruit high-profile candidates for his future cabinet now. He must build a strong team, ready to lead, and thus show that he is capable of surrounding himself adequately.
The truth is that in the current Conservative caucus, which has 118 MPs, there are not 25 to 30 potential ministers. They are a dozen, at most. It is too little to ensure the direction of the main portfolios of a future Poilievre government. I’m talking here strictly about numbers, I’m not even taking into account factors such as parity or bilingualism.
Being part of an opposition party’s shadow cabinet does not guarantee you a place at the cabinet table. Criticizing is easy. Doing a good job in a parliamentary committee by inviting key witnesses and asking relevant questions to bring out the flaws in a law requires a little more skill.
Even more to manage an army of civil servants who say, “Yes, Minister” in unison while doing as they please and peppering their hundreds of page memos with acronyms. You have to patiently dissect bills, identify allocations of funds that go against the objective of this act, and so on. It’s a whole other story. It can be managed, but it is very difficult!
Being a minister means coming home very late from the office after a day of endless meetings and briefings with, in your secure briefcase, a mountain of reading to do before going to bed. It takes some experience of how government works, discipline, real managerial talent. Know how to prioritize, communicate, surround yourself well, delegate, while remaining on the lookout to be ready to manage a crisis at any time, the days of a minister rarely following the morning agenda…
An incomplete office
There are currently only five Conservative MPs who, due to their experience as ministers in the Harper government, could fill these positions at short notice: Michael Chong, Rob Moore, Kerry-Lynne Findlay, Michelle Rempel Garner and Tim Uppal. I am not including former cabinet ministers Ed Fast and Erin O’Toole, as their future in the party is uncertain, nor Candice Bergen, who has announced she will not run again.
Two other deputies were ministers at the provincial level: Chris d’Entremont, in New Brunswick, and Dominique Vien, in Quebec. So we’re down to seven.
Several good recruits have also been political assistants in the past. At the top of the list are John Williamson, former director of communications for Stephen Harper, Melissa Lantsman, who served as director of communications for Finance Minister Joe Oliver, and Adam Chambers, former adviser to Minister Jim Flaherty. Luc Berthold, meanwhile, was chief of staff in the Quebec government.
There are also MPs with municipal experience as mayors, such as Scott Aitchison, Eric Duncan and a few others. Others have interesting professional profiles in the field of economics, such as Greg McLean, Phil Lawrence and Kelly McCauley. Stéphanie Kusie was a diplomat and Alex Ruff, colonel. In Quebec, Gérard Deltell and Pierre Paul-Hus will most certainly be considered. And Andrew Scheer, as a former leader, is most certainly a minister.
All these scholarly analyzes do not, however, lead to a complete Poilievre cabinet. Having an incomplete cabinet will force Pierre Poilievre to turn his attention outward to recruit enough ministers.
When Stephen Harper became leader, he faced the same challenge. He had been able to attract former deputies and ministers to the provincial government, including Lawrence Cannon, minister under Robert Bourassa, and former ministers Jim Flaherty, John Baird and Tony Clement from Ontario.
Prestigious candidates
And this is not a difficulty unique to conservatives. Justin Trudeau had to do the same by recruiting Bill Morneau from the private sector to parachute him into his first government as Minister of Finance. Chrystia Freeland, now Deputy Prime Minister, was also personally recruited by Mr. Trudeau in the journalistic world. In Quebec, François Legault did the same, recruiting the trio Eric Girard, Christian Dubé and Pierre Fitzgibbon to lead his first government.
During the last campaign, the banker Vincent Duhamel had been approached to take the reins of an economic portfolio within a future cabinet of Erin O’Toole, but the choice of the constituency was not judicious. One cannot indeed speak of recruitment without mentioning the parachuting of candidates into favorable constituencies. This practice, which sometimes creates a stir, is necessary if one does not want to deprive oneself of good potential ministers.
Let us remember, for example, that Stephen Harper appointed banker Michael Fortier to the Senate and then appointed him minister. This is of course a temporary solution, and parachuting does not always work. Talk to Yolande James, former minister under Jean Charest, who would certainly be a minister in the Trudeau government today if she had won the Liberal nomination following the departure of Stéphane Dion.
Going from an occasional shadow cabinet to a Council of Ministers capable of managing the affairs of the country at a moment’s notice is no small feat. You have to take into account many sensitivities and know how to preserve cohesion in the caucus while bringing together elected officials who have the required skills. It is necessary to reserve the effect of surprise, while waiting for an election, to present a team capable of leading the country.
If he wishes to aspire to the post of Prime Minister, Pierre Poilievre will have to court prestigious candidates, who have the experience and the profiles necessary to win the confidence of Canadians. This research will no doubt occupy much of his time as the new leader.