The author is a former conservative strategist. He was a political adviser in the Harper government as well as in the opposition.
Dominique Anglade will leave her seat as MNA for Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne on 1er december. Premier Legault will then have six months to call a by-election.
The Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) must decide whether it will run a short or long race to choose its next leader. François Legault will wait to know the PLQ’s calendar before deciding on the date of the by-election in this riding.
Traditionally, a by-election is a test that predicts the outcome of the next general election. A kind of mini rehearsal to assess the strength of organizations on the ground and gauge the mood of voters. This is especially true when the date of the general election is close.
However, we are far from the date of the next general election. This by-election will therefore have little impact in Quebec. In the scenario where the next Liberal leader is not already an MP, it would be possible for the Liberals to use this riding to get him elected. If the race calendar allows it, of course.
Mme Anglade won this constituency with 36% of the votes and 11,728 votes. A majority of 2736 votes over his rival from Québec solidaire (QS), Guillaume Cliche-Rivard. The CAQ came third. QS is therefore in the race to win this seat in a by-election against the PLQ, with mobilized members and a lower turnout.
Since the October 3 election, the leaders of QS, the Parti Québécois (PQ) and the Conservative Party of Quebec (PCQ) have denounced the voting system from every platform. The figures make you think: a little over 15% of the votes give 11 deputies to QS and 0.82% less gives three deputies to the PQ. According to the calculation of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon, the PQ should have 18 deputies. The difference of 103,749 votes between the PCQ and QS gives a difference of 11 deputies, with none elected for the PCQ despite a score of almost 13%.
This voting method gives rise to an “injustice”, according to the leader of the PQ; he is “unjustifiable, sick, broken”, according to Gabriel Nadeau-Dubois. The latter also affirmed that, “whatever our political allegiance, we should not accept that so many votes are lost”.
I have a beginning of solution, imperfect, I conceive it, to answer these affirmations. This is not exactly what these chiefs have in mind, nor the citizens of this constituency, but it would have the merit of sparking discussion and taking the measure of the authenticity of their remarks. In the short term, anyway.
What is good for pitouest good for kitty
QS and the PQ could choose not to present a candidate in the Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne by-election. This would leave room for Éric Duhaime, who could thus enter the National Assembly and offer representation to the PCQ.
If we add the votes of QS and the PQ in this constituency, we arrive at 11,675 votes, almost equal to the Liberal vote. However, I am not relying on this calculation to propose this temporary solution. We are talking here about the principle of representation.
In the past, political parties have chosen not to present a candidate in by-elections to leave the seat to a leader of another party. A gesture of courtesy between politicians. In 2007, Jean Charest, then Prime Minister, did not present a candidate against Pauline Marois, the leader of the PQ. In 2013, Philippe Couillard was elected without having to face candidates from the PQ and the CAQ. These were not “taken” constituencies, but the principle and the nobility of the gesture remain.
Robert Bourassa, who had won the 1985 election as Prime Minister of a majority government, had not won his seat as an MP. Liberal MP Germain Leduc had left his riding to him and the PQ had not presented a candidate during the partial. There are also many federal examples of this form of electoral comity.
We can assume that, in Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne, it would be easier for the PQ (arrival 4e) to adopt this principle only at QS (come second). However, Mr. Nadeau-Dubois is no stranger to this “good faith” practice. In 2017, Jean-François Lisée, then leader of the PQ, did not present a candidate in the by-election to fill the seat left vacant by the departure of Françoise David.
When Mr. St-Pierre Plamondon became chief, it was Mr.me Anglade who had offered not to present a candidate if he had to choose the riding of Marie-Victorin. He did not, but the proposal of Mme England counts. The PQ that respects QS. QS which disqualifies a candidate who disrespects the PQ. The PLQ and the PQ who, reciprocally, show respect and honor parliamentary traditions.
With his majority of 90 deputies, Mr. Legault could show the same magnanimity and thus mitigate his broken promise of proportionality. He could show himself to be a great lord by calling the election quickly, without presenting a CAQ candidate, in a riding he will not win. Having to answer a question from Mr. Duhaime every three weeks in the National Assembly is not very difficult.
This would ensure a little more representativeness. Instead of arguing over speaking time among themselves, the other parties would agree on the right to speak for the more than 500,000 Quebecers who voted for the PCQ. For QS and the PQ, this is a continuation of the arguments they have put forward since the election. Isn’t it time to walk the talk on PR? Or was it just empty words?