The author is a former conservative strategist. He was a political adviser in the Harper government as well as in the opposition.
Danielle Smith will officially become premier of Alberta on Tuesday. She succeeds Jason Kenney, after winning the leadership race for the United Conservative Party of Alberta on Thursday with 53.77% of the vote in the sixth round of voting. The next general election in Alberta must be held before the end of May 2023. Danielle Smith will therefore serve seven months in the chair of premier, at the head of a majority government. His warhorse ? Introduce, as the first bill, his promise of “Alberta sovereignty”.
This is not a plan for separation as we have seen in Quebec under the Parti Québécois. Its objective is rather to claim all the powers in its fields of competence. Mme Smith also wants to give himself the right not to apply federal laws that go against the decisions of the Alberta legislature.
According to the polls, the victory of Mme Smith in 2023 is not assured, while a return of Rachel Notley, former NDP premier is possible. Justin Trudeau can tell himself that it’s just a bad time to pass and that everything will be back to normal when Mr.me Notley will return to power. It’s a risky bet. In Alberta as in Quebec, it often pays for a prime minister to fight against Ottawa in order to win the support of its population.
Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe also aims to continue to counter federal intrusions into his areas of jurisdiction. He will table a policy paper on Tuesday outlining the negative economic impact of certain federal policies on his province. An autonomist wind is blowing over Canada.
It’s not just in the West that Justin Trudeau lacks allies. New Brunswick and Nova Scotia are led by Conservative governments. There are no elections in sight until 2024 for Prime Minister Blaine Higgs and 2025 for Tim Houston.
On the strength of his victory, François Legault indicated that his priority will be to obtain more power in immigration, a jurisdiction shared with the federal government. He immediately received a dismissal from Justin Trudeau, who took the opportunity to remind him that Quebec already has all the tools it needs in this area.
And Ontario in all this?
One question remains unanswered: what will Conservative Premier Doug Ford do in Ontario? His enviable position allows him to tip the scales. Either he joins the camp of the slingers by giving his moral backing to the autonomist demands of the other provinces, or he goes it alone by demanding exclusive conditions for Ontario, for the automobile industry, for example. In the latter case, the Trudeau government will do everything to satisfy him.
This new dynamic makes Doug Ford the leader of the federation, not because of the economic or demographic weight of his province, but because of the new balance of power that this creates in federal-provincial relations.
Things are getting complicated for the Trudeau government. The lights of the interprovincial relations department will stay on late into the night with this new puzzle.
At the last meeting of the Council of the Federation, on September 27, the premiers renewed their demands to increase the federal share of health care funding. This is a common priority of provincial premiers that Justin Trudeau continues to ignore. He persists in asserting that we must wait for the end of COVID-19 before tackling it. The list of requests is growing with the arrival of Danielle Smith and François Legault’s request for immigration.
Justin Trudeau should not underestimate this change in dynamic. The provinces, for their part, must be careful not to dilute their demands and to speak with one voice, at the risk of becoming marginalized. Health funding must remain their priority.
For the rest, it’s a safe bet that there won’t be a consensus to increase the list of demands at the next meeting of the Council of the Federation. British Columbia will be led by an NDP government until October 2024. Justin Trudeau will certainly turn to this ally as well as to Newfoundland and its Liberal Prime Minister, Andrew Furey, in office until 2025. Divide to reign better is a proven method.
However, the reality of Canadian federalism is that when Alberta and Quebec are aligned, it is very difficult for Ottawa to ignore the demands of the provinces. If François Legault wants to get out of the game, he will have to, in a way, form a common front with the autonomist provinces and return to health.