The considerable lead of the Conservatives over the Liberals seems to have atrophied slightly last week, according to a poll which still places Pierre Poilievre’s troops far ahead, figures which serve as a “warning”, according to the analyst of the political polls, Philippe Fournier.
The results of the Abacus-Toronto Star survey carried out between December 7 and 12 show a drop of five points for the Conservative Party of Canada (CPC) compared to the end of November.
With 37%, the PCC still obtains strong support, enough to bring it to power, and perhaps even with a majority mandate. This represents ten points difference with the Liberals, who obtained 27%.
A portion of the lost support seems to have returned directly to the hands of Justin Trudeau’s Liberals, who have regained momentum, with an increase of 4% compared to the end of November.
Taking these changes into account, the gap observed by the firm Abacus between the two parties increased from 19% at the end of November – a real peak – to 10% in just over two weeks.
“These latest figures are like a warning to the PCC that the voters’ vote is not won before it is in the ballot boxes,” pointed out Philippe Fournier.
With these new results, the Conservatives therefore return to the level of approval they held in August, an indicator that the party seems to be on the path to “regression towards the mean”, continued the expert.
Other polls carried out in the last month give around 40% for the CCP, with a ceiling of 42% and a floor of 38%. In reality, Mr. Fournier believes that the 40% zone “surely” constitutes a ceiling for the conservatives.
Nothing has changed on the side of the NDP and the Bloc Québécois, which are respectively at 19% and 7% of voting intentions. Yves-François Blanchet’s Bloc remains at 33% in voting intentions in Quebec.
As for them, the Green Party and the Popular Party of Maxime Bernier obtained 5 and 4% respectively.
Although this is a “statistically significant” change, according to pollster David Coletto of Abacus Data, it is too early to call it a trend per se.
Philippe Fournier predicts that voting intentions will fluctuate a lot in 2024. Since the Trudeau government is in the minority, the calling of elections next year cannot be ruled out.