Life on Earth is under siege. This is the expression chosen by the authors of an article published this week in the journal BioScience, in which a group of researchers looked at the state of 35 planetary “vital signs”. We examine in particular the accumulation of carbon in the atmosphere, the energy and meat consumption of the world population, extreme heat and the health of forests.
Among the “vital signs” observed, 20 out of 35 indicate, for the year 2023, a situation more alarming than ever. The most pessimistic predictions are coming true, climate records – and more particularly heat records – are being successively broken, scenes of distress and devastation are multiplying and intensifying. “We are entering uncharted territory with regard to the climate crisis, a situation that no one has witnessed before in the history of humanity,” conclude the authors.
From life “under siege” here to the IPCC’s “closing window on the future of humanity”, this new desperate call adds to the list of alerts launched by alarmed scientists. It’s a frightening phenomenon in itself: shocking formulas and formal calls for help from scientists are multiplying, but the outbursts are systematically drowned out in the cacophony of planetary events.
However, it is hard to imagine how the climate news of recent years could have been more theatrical and colorful; the fiery speeches, the spectacular actions, the iconoclastic figures. We are reaching the limit of public communication as a political strategy. It will have to be admitted: the problem here is not one – or is no longer one – of awareness of the issues at stake.
Nevertheless, the week was particularly full of alarming findings, while the Institute for Environment and Human Security of the United Nations University also published its report Interconnected Disasters Risks 2023, announcing that humanity is on the verge of the point of crossing six “tipping points” that will result in radical and irreversible disruption.
The concept of the “tipping point” refers to a threshold beyond which ecological and social systems are too disrupted to continue to absorb risks and function stably, under viable conditions.
First, tipping points linked to the organization of societies: the expansion of communities deemed “uninsurable” due to their exposure to disasters, or even – more surprisingly – the accumulation of debris in space, likely to cause collisions which will prevent, in particular, the operation of crucial weather forecasting tools in a context of climate disruption. Then, we of course identify tipping points linked to the physical environment: chain extinctions, depletion of aquifers, intensification of extreme heat, accelerated melting of glaciers.
On this subject, we learn, in another study published this week, that the melting of the West Antarctic ice is expected to accelerate in the coming decades, regardless of efforts to reduce GHGs. Even if we managed to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, as provided for in the Paris Agreement, it is too late, the models indicate, the oceans will warm up too much to slow down the melting that has begun.
It would be all well and good if we actually respected the commitments of the Paris Agreement, but we are far from that goal. Just this month, the International Energy Agency warned that progress in the energy transition is largely insufficient. If a “peak” in demand for hydrocarbons is indeed expected over the next decade, consumption will remain too high to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Current commitments to reduce the use of hydrocarbons take us towards an increase of 2.4°C by the end of the century.
It’s hard to predict how many tipping points would be exceeded in a world 2.4 degrees warmer, but it’s a safe bet that humans wouldn’t be around to witness it anyway.
One month before the start of COP28 in the United Arab Emirates — whose hydrocarbon sector is booming — there is no indication that States will make more serious commitments, to at least get closer to the objective set by the Agreement from Paris. Furthermore, while a growing proportion of the world’s population risks finding itself stuck in a territory that will become uninhabitable in the years to come, the parties seem incapable of agreeing on the establishment of a fund for losses and damage — which was nevertheless presented as the great gain of COP27 in Egypt last year.
There are 114 million people currently displaced across the world, the Office of the United Nations High Commissioner said on Wednesday, due to conflicts and human rights violations. This is a record since the UNHCR began compiling this data in 1975, and the calculation does not even take into account the million and a half Palestinians displaced these days.
It is no coincidence that violence is intensifying at the very moment when the climate is deteriorating. This is the reflection of a political choice: everything indicates that it is through violence, dispossession and authoritarianism that we have chosen to manage planetary tensions. As the assault with potential genocidal intent against Gaza continues, under the powerless eye of international law and under timid calls for a humanitarian truce, we have a vision of the future.
Columnist specializing in environmental justice issues, Aurélie Lanctôt is a doctoral student in law at McGill University.