When the white smoke cleared, a few teeth were lying on the ground.
Posted at 7:00 a.m.
It was a brutal race. But a former party leader had already told me this at the end of a leadership race: in politics, everything is forgiven…
Everything can be forgiven under certain conditions: if the leader receives a strong mandate and if he has a good chance of winning the next elections. A mysterious phenomenon then occurs. The brilliance of ministerial limousines shines on the horizon, wounds are healing and memories are fading…
Pierre Poilievre’s victory, with 68% of the votes, is even more overwhelming than expected. He thus inherits a party that is less divided than is claimed. Facing the militants, Mr. Poilievre’s legitimacy is total. For comparison, we had to wait until the 3e lap for Erin O’Toole’s victory on the 13the for that of Andrew Scheer.
Thanks to its massive recruitment, the number of members exploded. They are five times more numerous in Quebec than last year.
Breaches appear in the caucus. With the exception of Pierre Paul-Hus, all of the Quebec MPs who took a stand lined up behind Jean Charest. But since Mr. Poilievre won in Quebec with 62% of the vote, his authority will not be in doubt. Anyway, Mr. Charest will disappear from political life. The source of the conflict will no longer be there. And to hear Mr. Poilievre speak French eloquently, Quebec MPs will think that it will already be much better than during the two previous campaigns.
With the social conservatives too, the tension will be manageable. Unlike Mr. O’Toole, Pierre Poilievre did not need to trade their support. And unlike Mr. Scheer, he does not belong to this movement. His debt to them is nil.
Outgoing interim leader Candice Bergen, a representative of the moral right, cautioned in her farewell address: “Respect the caucus, listen to it and have faith in it. The party should advocate unity, but not uniformity, she said. Stephen Harper had managed to keep this fragile balance and Mr. Poilievre will be inspired by it. Because like his mentor, he has a free hand.
Everyone took note of it on Saturday evening: this party is his.
The first thing to observe will be his surroundings. Mr. Poilievre will soon have to choose a parliamentary team.
During the campaign, his supporters flooded social networks with angry messages, to the point that MP Alain Rayes no longer dared to read his emails.
Sickened, he had this to say to Mr. Poilievre’s close aide, Jenni Byrne: “I have yet to meet a person who could find a good side in you. If Mr. Poilievre offers an important position to this kind of person, he will confirm that his strategy remains the same: enrage to reign.
This is also the other big question at the end of his victory: will he settle down?
His victory speech suggests yes, a little bit, at least in tone. He did not insist on “freedom”. He no longer winked at the theses of the convoy that paralyzed Ottawa. He focused on his obsession: the economy.
But he surely took notes on the fate of two recent chiefs. Mr. O’Toole was ejected by his caucus who considered him too centrist and fickle. And Jason Kenney, premier of Alberta and star of the Conservative movement, will not run in the next campaign after narrowly surviving a vote of confidence. He too was reproached for his moderation.
And anyway, we do not reinvent ourselves. For him, politics is a combat sport. The more the mud twirls, the more he smiles. His sense of formula is spectacular. But for the solutions, he will have to gain depth. Unpoliticized voters will have many questions for him. For example, what would he do with the Liberal program on child care that allows women to work and families to save money?
He must, however, be delighted at the idea of facing Justin Trudeau. A leader worn out by power who lost the popular vote in the last elections, who had no more experience than him before governing and who witnessed the departure of several heavyweights in his team. If Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland was perfectly happy in her role, the rumor of her candidacy for NATO might not have circulated in the media.
After three straight losses, the Conservatives believe their turn has come. As long as Mr. Poilievre does not purposely alienate his MPs or scare Canadians, unity should be achieved.
When Mr. Poilievre looks at Justin Trudeau, he sees his dream opponent. His worst enemy is in the mirror that he sees her.