Pierre Poilievre made a curious choice this week by jumping aboard his recreational vehicle — adorned with the Conservative slogan in both official languages — bound for Montreal. Of course, the end of the parliamentary session in Ottawa freed him from work in the House of Commons. At the start of summer, what could be better than taking the whole family to cross the Belle Province in a caravan? Except that a few days before a by-election that everyone considers to be a crucial test both for Mr. Poilievre and for the Prime Minister of Canada, Justin Trudeau, his decision not to campaign in Toronto in the riding of St . Paul’s raises eyebrows among many in his own party. What message was the Conservative leader trying to send to activists?
While Mr. Trudeau and more than a dozen of his ministers have campaigned in this Liberal stronghold since 1993, the absence of the Conservative leader alongside his candidate in St. Paul’s was greatly noticed by the Toronto media. If the Liberal candidate, Leslie Church, former chief of staff to Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, remains the favorite, the result risks being close. The Liberals’ fall in the polls in Ontario and Mr. Poilievre’s unwavering support for Israel could change everything in this riding where Jewish voters account for approximately 15% of the electorate. And Mr. Poilievre instead chooses to spend the last weekend before Monday’s vote crossing Quebec in a recreational vehicle?
Could it be because he doesn’t really want to win in St. Paul’s? After all, a Liberal defeat could hasten Mr. Trudeau’s departure. While dozens of Liberal MPs already want him to resign, the loss of St. Paul’s would increase discontent within the caucus. Mr. Trudeau would ultimately be forced to
to give up.
However, conservative strategists fear that the arrival of a new Liberal leader will completely disrupt their game plan for the next campaign. Mr. Poilievre keeps repeating that everything is going wrong in Canada “after nine years of Justin Trudeau.” The departure of the latter would render its formula obsolete. The arrival of former Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney at the head of the Liberal Party of Canada would allow the PLC to regain the support of the blue Liberals who left the party as Mr. Trudeau left it. brought to the left for nine years. There are a lot of these blue Liberals in Ontario…and in St. Paul’s.
Certainly, many Liberals believe that Mr. Trudeau would allow the party to at least save its furniture in the next election, while a new leader would risk suffering a fate similar to that of Kim Campbell in 1993, when the Progressive Party -conservative had only won 2 seats out of the 295 at the time. Yet such a liberal collapse would not be possible in the worst circumstances. The PLC remains too dominant in English-speaking and allophone Quebec, and in French-speaking ridings outside Quebec. However, the polls are becoming more and more worrying for the party. The seat projections come close to the 34-seat score obtained under Michael Ignatieff, the worst result in the party’s history.
The Liberals only won 7 seats in Quebec in 2011. The poll aggregator 338Canada projects that the party would win in 29 ridings in the next federal election, a drop of 6 seats compared to the result obtained in 2021. Quebec remains the only province where the Conservatives are not leading, with the Bloc Québécois remaining in the lead in voting intentions in all polls. Yves-François Blanchet’s troops even seem to be advancing for several weeks. At 31% in a Léger poll published at the beginning of the month, support for the Bloc climbed to 36% in the latest Abacus poll, published last Sunday, and even to 41% according to a poll from the Angus Reid firm published Thursday.
Quebecers still seem to hesitate to give in to Mr. Poilievre’s attempts at seduction. The latter’s tour in Quebec these days aims to change the situation. With his wife, Anaida, and their two children by his side, Mr. Poilievre executes this charm offensive especially in the target regions of Saguenay–Lac-Saint-Jean, Centre-du-Québec, Mauricie and Estrie. His rally in the Montreal riding of Mount Royal on Wednesday, where he presented conservative candidate Neil Oberman, was enough to worry the outgoing Liberal MP, Anthony Housefather, who has openly criticized the Trudeau government’s policy for months regarding Israel and the war in Gaza.
As he began his Quebec tour, Mr. Poilievre also toughened his tone when speaking about immigration, Statistics Canada having just announced that the number of temporary immigrants had increased to 2.8 million people in the first quarter of 2024, including nearly 600,000 in Quebec. “After nine years of Justin Trudeau, the immigration system is completely out of control… Quebec is at the breaking point,” he insisted, repeating the CAQ government’s criticism of Mr. Trudeau .
It remains to be seen whether Mr. Poilievre will be able to alleviate the fears of Quebecers – 44% of whom say they are worried about his possible arrival in power, according to the latest Léger poll – to make a breakthrough in Quebec and make gains beyond conservative strongholds. of the Old Capital region. He will have to do a lot of mileage in his trailer before he gets there.