The year 2022, tense on the migration front, ended on a controversial note. To the chagrin of humanitarian organizations, the High Court in London validated the British government’s plan at the end of December to deport its asylum seekers to Rwanda.
No one in the UK was more pleased with the decision than Home Secretary Suella Braverman. Two months earlier, M.me Braverman, 42, had formulated his “dream” of “seeing a plane take off for Rwanda” for Christmas, with asylum seekers on board who had arrived “illegally” in England.
Her wishes weren’t granted in time for New Year’s Eve, but Ms.me Braverman seems determined to carry out the project during 2023.
The very right-wing politician, who is herself a product of immigration (her parents are from Mauritius), has made the migration issue a priority, and says she is ready to use all means to deter migrants. to cross the Channel clandestinely.
In an interview given in mid-December to Timehis message to asylum seekers was quite “clear”: “If you come here […] illegally on small boats, breaking our rules, you will not be entitled to be housed here indefinitely at the taxpayer’s expense. There will be a very quick response when you arrive here. Detention followed by deportation. ” A threat renewed on Wednesday by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, in his first speech of the year 2023.
Europe-wide
The UK asylum system is currently overwhelmed. And the migration issue has become a real political issue in the United Kingdom, especially for the Conservatives in power, who seek to “regain control” of the borders in the wake of Brexit.
But this is only a fraction of a larger problem, which continues to play out on a European scale.
After a two-year slowdown due to the pandemic, “irregular” immigration picked up again in 2022, with 275,000 entries recorded at Europe’s borders, according to Frontex, the European border guard agency. An increase of 168% and 59% on the two main routes taken (Balkans and Mediterranean) compared to the previous year. And a major source of tension between the 27 member countries of the European Union (EU), which seem less and less united on this issue.
Unsurprisingly, this upward trend is expected to continue into 2023.
Clandestine crossings of the Mediterranean will multiply, and the EU will continue to advance crisis after crisis, seeking to defend its “fortress”.
“Unfortunately, I don’t see the situation improving at all,” summarizes political scientist François Gemenne, a migration expert at the University of Liège.
Mr. Gemenne recalls that with the rise of sovereignism in Europe (Hungary, Sweden, Italy), the migration issue has become a real subject of tension in the EU. The Dublin agreements on the distribution of asylum seekers are interpreted more and more freely while the European pact on migration of 2020 seems definitively dead and buried. “International law no longer exists. It has become a fantasy”, regrets François Gemenne, adding that the States do today “what they want” to defend their national interest. Starting with Italy, which recently refused to accept a humanitarian boat (theocean viking) with migrants rescued from the sea on board, in defiance of maritime law.
Outsource, outsource
It would be surprising, in this respect, for the 27 to come together to improve the management of the reception of migrants on European territory. According to Luna Vives Gonzalez, a specialist in international migration at the University of Montreal, we will instead see the strengthening of agreements aimed at outsourcing the processing of asylum applications in “transit” countries such as Turkey, Libya and Morocco. , in order to limit clandestine crossings upstream.
“It’s really the strategy that is perceived as winning right now,” summarizes Mme Long live González. According to her, the “Rwanda plan” of the United Kingdom is also part of this trend, since it is neither more nor less than an “extreme form of outsourcing”.
Imperfect solution, moreover, since the countries concerned will probably want to take advantage of this lever “to advance their own geopolitical program”. And that this band-aid will necessarily be insufficient to break the now well-established migratory patterns.
In fact, the problem will not be solved until we tackle more precisely the question of inequalities in the world, the main source of the problem.
“Poverty, violence, the violation of human rights and now the economic factors with the ever increasing cost of living. These are the roots of immigration, concludes Christine Clark-Kazak, an expert on the issue at the University of Ottawa. The migration crisis will therefore continue because the reasons that drive migration are still there…”
According to the UN Migration Agency, at least 2,836 deaths and disappearances have been documented on the Central Mediterranean route since 2021 (as of October 24, 2022). A report by the NGO Caminando Fronteras presented at the end of December also estimates that more than 11,200 migrants have died or disappeared since 2018 while trying to reach Spain, i.e. 6 per day on average…