The latest announcement to raise the thresholds for permanent immigration to Canada was not so surprising.
There is a tendency to interpret the increase as being a deliberate and ideological policy, but there is also a combination of circumstances that has ensured that the proposals of the Initiative of the Century, aligned of course with the discourse of openness and diversity of the Liberal Party of Canada, fell at a time when Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) was beginning to lose control over Canadian immigration.
It was inevitable. Canada could not limitlessly increase its temporary immigration, especially inviting international students to come and stay, without increasing its permanent immigration thresholds.
Politically, it cannot send back people who have graduated and who have contributed to the Canadian economy for several years. Hence the recent and announced special programs for the regularization of people with temporary status, as well as undocumented people, another phenomenon that is increasing with temporary immigration.
The CAQ government is more fond of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFWP)1. In Canada, as of December 31, 2022, permit holders of this program represented 7.5% of all permit holders of the three temporary immigration programs. In Quebec, they made up 17.5%. Like Canada, Quebec is increasing the number of temporary workers, but unlike Canada, Quebec refuses to increase its thresholds for permanent immigration.
Chaotic results
Ultimately, the results are chaotic and marked by improvisation:
– the processing times for applications for a Quebec selection certificate (CSQ) are stretching for all the permanent categories – economic, family and humanitarian. This document is issued by the Ministry of Immigration, Francisation and Integration (MIFI) and is a prerequisite for permanent residence in Quebec;
– Quebec is slowing down its selection so as not to exceed the planned permanent thresholds;
– IRCC is also slowing down the issuance of permanent residence visas for CSQ holders so as not to exceed the thresholds established by Quebec;
– more and more French-speaking immigrants2 – temporary in Quebec and permanent from abroad – decide to apply for permanent residence in another province. (A gift to the federal government, which wants to increase Francophone immigration outside Quebec.)
Blaming the processing times for permanent residence applications on IRCC and the pandemic, Jean Boulet, former minister of the MIFI, negotiated with the federal government an open temporary work permit under the International Mobility Program. It is called the PMI+. This permit, also issued by the federal government, is offered to people with a CSQ waiting for their permanent residence. It allows those already in Quebec to continue working here and those abroad to come and settle on Quebec soil.
But if Quebec refuses to increase its permanent immigration thresholds, its people will remain with temporary status for a very long time.
The next phenomenon we are likely to see will be that of French-speaking people selected by Quebec and working in Quebec with a PMI+ permit who decide to move and reapply for permanent residence in another province because they are tired of waiting and want to be able to plan their lives.
Although the government promises to select 100% Francophone immigration, the delays in obtaining permanent residence cause Quebec to lose Francophone immigrants to other provinces or territories. Where is the logic ? If these people wish to settle in Quebec, they can come here following their admission to Canada, because there are no obstacles to the mobility of permanent residents. But that has the effect of leaving the selection to the federal government and the other provinces.
The consultations organized by the MIFI that will take place in the coming months will establish the parameters of immigration to Quebec for at least three years without providing a vision for the future. This is not planning, but rather reactive management whose results will continue to be chaotic. It is not enough to say where we do not want to go by denouncing the Initiative of the Century. It is a question of answering another question: where are we going, and above all, where do we want to go?
It is crucial that the government be fully transparent on all issues, both to the host population on how it proposes to manage the number and pace of arrivals and to those arriving on the harsh realities of their status. The issue of unlimited temporary immigration presents too many negative issues to be excluded from the debate. The goal is a return to a functioning permanent immigration system.