Is the war in Ukraine slowly spreading on the Russian side? More and more bombardments or missile or drone attacks have been reported in recent days on Russian territory. Attacks whose magnitude has nothing to do with the rain of bombs and missiles that Russia is dropping on Ukraine, but which is already generating great concern among many inhabitants of the border regions.
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This is the case in the Bryansk region, west of Moscow, about a hundred kilometers from Ukraine. A region where the authorities report that several villages have been the target of fire or shelling at the border. In Bryansk itself, the city’s main oil depot caught fire in late April, possibly targeted by a drone attack. In recent days, the FSB, the Russian secret services, announced that they had arrested a man carrying explosives.
This event was at the heart of all the discussions, but, as often, it is difficult to talk about it openly. The answers of the inhabitants are therefore often in the same tone: “Well, that means the FSB is doing a good job. Good game ! Everything is fine, everything is fine, everything is great. We believe in our president, in our people, everything is fine. Thanks a lot !“Others are more talkative, like Valentina, a vegetable vendor at the Bryansk market.”Of course, we watch TV and I saw somewhere that there was an explosion at the central market, she says.
“The situation is scary, today I have less people. People come less, I think everyone is scared of course.”
Valentina, vegetable sellerat franceinfo
In recent weeks, the incidents have multiplied. Sunday, October 16, there were four wounded in Belgorod following missile fire. There was also the operation with explosives against the Kerch bridge, which leads to the Crimea, on October 8. The images particularly marked Alexandra, a teacher from Bryansk. “The explosion of the Kerch Bridge, for example, had a greater impact on my anxiety than the explosions that took place in the Bryansk region.“, she explains. She recounts having discussed with a “old lady over 80“: “She no longer takes her bra off when she goes to bed. So that, if something happens, she can put her clothes on quickly, and not be completely naked.“
It is very difficult to say whether the Ukrainians are behind these attacks, or whether they are the result of manipulation by Russian power. Unsurprisingly, the Russian authorities are not very forthcoming on the subject: the areas where these bombardments take place are sometimes even forbidden to foreign journalists. Another difficulty in answering this question is that the Ukrainians never claim these attacks. They do not dispute them either, they maintain a certain vagueness.
Last week, two Russians, well known for trapping well-known personalities in videoconferences, published a video of Dmytro Kuleba, the Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs. They posed as the former US ambassador to Russia and asked him if the Ukrainians were carrying out operations on Russian territory. Here is his response:If you ask me who is blowing something up in Crimea or Belgorod, well, in a private communication, as long as it can be private on Zoom, I’ll say yes, it’s us.“Dmytro Kuleba has not confirmed or denied that it was indeed him on this video. Many experts believe, in any case, that the Ukrainians are carrying out operations in Russia.
The govt media. Russians broadcast a video of a man presented as Dmytro Kuleba. The Ukrainian MFA seems to have been tricked by 2 “comedians” pretending to be the former US ambassador to the UK Michael McFaul to whom he explains that he is carrying out military operations in Russia. 1/4 pic.twitter.com/islb8oHAJB
— Sylvain Tronchet (@SylvainTronchet) October 13, 2022
The impact of these operations on Russia is uncertain. On the one hand, this can serve the propaganda of the Russian power to denounce the attitude of Ukraine. But in the end, this is mostly a problem for some. Artyom, an opponent of power in the Bryansk region, for example, believes that these operations will eventually erode Russian confidence in power. “For a long time in Russia there has been an agreement between the authorities and the people that you stay out of our business and we stay out of yours. It turns out today that this consensus has been broken. They thought Putin was the kind of man who could fix everything himself and control everything“, he advances.
“People have much less confidence in Putin, if military action starts on Russian territory, I don’t know how the mood of Russians might change.”
Now not a day goes by without learning that there has been a new attack, bombardment or sabotage on Russian soil. If it’s not yet war, it’s starting to look more and more like it.