Pension reform: the different possible scenarios for the government

The pension reform enters its home straight on Thursday, March 16. The bill must be submitted to the vote in the Senate in the morning, then in the National Assembly in the afternoon. In the Assembly, the outcome of a vote on the reform is however uncertain. Journalist Nathalie Saint-Cricq, present on the set of 8 Hours, Thursday March 16, looks back on the different possible scenarios for the government. He could first vote in the Assembly without resorting to Rule 49.3. “It will be played with five to ten votes, so there is no point in missing out. You have to know exactly who at Les Républicains will support Emmanuel Macron’s reform”says the journalist.

The 49.3 hypothesis

If the text were subject to a vote in the Assembly and was not adopted, Nathalie Saint-Cricq believes that“we do not see how the government and Emmanuel Macron could continue” and that we would head “towards a dissolution” of the hemicycle. If the government ended up having recourse to Article 49.3 to get its text through the Assembly, that would prove, on the other hand, that the government “is not capable of having the legitimacy of Parliament”.