How does a team that is weak offensively and weak defensively reach the playoffs?
Posted at 9:41 p.m.
Updated at 10:35 p.m.
Thanks to effective special units. Thanks to a gigantic gap between the strongest and weakest clubs in its conference. And above all, above all, thanks to the prowess of his goalkeeper.
Igor Shesterkin of the New York Rangers will win the Vezina Trophy this season. We’ve known that for months. And he will certainly receive votes for the Hart Trophy, crowning the most valuable player to his team.
Only three goaltenders to date have maintained a season save percentage of .935 or higher while starting at least 50 games: Tim Thomas in 2010-11, Dominik Hasek in 1998-99 and Igor Shesterkin in 2021- 2022. The Russian has literally just wrapped up one of the most prolific campaigns in NHL history on an individual level.
But he is human. That’s a problem for his team, which lost an awkward 7-2 Monday in Pittsburgh. The Penguins take a 3-1 lead in this first-round series, which could end as early as Wednesday in New York.
PHOTO GENE J. PUSKAR, ASSOCIATED PRESS
Sidney Crosby (87)
In the first game of the series, Shesterkin was a superman, despite the defeat of his people. The 83 shots he received in some six periods were close to a league record. In the second game, the one won by the New Yorkers, he was excellent, repelling 39 of the 41 pucks aimed at him.
However, we tend to forget it, but a collision between Jeff Carter and him occurred at the end of the meeting that evening. The contact, very low in the legs, was not the most violent. The keeper had just dodged his own defender, and Carter seemed to want to get around him. But Shesterkin was still thrown into the air and lay on the ice for a long time with an athletic therapist before getting back up.
Did he hurt himself on this sequence? Good luck finding out. But the fact is that, since the start of the next match, it hasn’t worked for him at all.
In just under 54 minutes of five-on-five play split between Games 3 and 4, specialist site NaturalStatTrick calculates that Shesterkin was on the ice for 3.61 expected goals from the opposition. However, he allowed seven. All situations combined, he stopped only 77.8% of the shots he faced.
These are surreal figures for a goalkeeper who, during the season, had “saved” 24 goals – the difference between goals expected and goals allowed.
The worst game
Just looking at him, we see that the 26-year-old goalkeeper is not in his normal state. But it’s not just that.
In front of him, the Rangers played what is perhaps the worst game one could imagine from a team in the playoffs. Also according to NaturalStatTrick, the Penguins won the quality scoring odds war five to five by an outsized score of 20 to 1. Rarely have we seen a collapse like this. It was believed that Rangers had reached rock bottom in the second period, but the overmanship fest continued into the third.
We are witnessing, in fact, a clash between two old rivals, certainly, but also between two diametrically opposed philosophies in the construction of a franchise.
The model of the Rangers is that of an accelerated reconstruction, therefore incomplete. Some exceptional players, but many flaws, especially defensively. We rely on the goalkeeper, for better or for worse.
On the other side, where they lifted the Stanley Cup in 2016 and 2017, with little or no star defense – Kris Letang did not play in 2017 – or in goal – although Matt Murray has been great that year.
Since these two conquests, it has become customary to bet against the Penguins. As if, each year, Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin had reached the end of their exploits. Yet no. The two big stars are still in great shape, playing in a tremendously well-trained roster that shines like unlikely heroes, as has been the case for years in the city of steel.
At 28, Mike Matheson has just had the best season of his career. Evan Rodrigues had never crossed the 30-point mark; it amassed 43 in 2021-22. Jeff Carter, 37, has just wrapped up his most prolific production in five years. Danton Heinen, considered a support player, now plays to the left of Malkin. Defender Mark Friedman, 26, scored on Monday. In all honesty, how many details could you list about him before the meeting?
The Penguins may not win the Stanley Cup. Probably not, in fact, since until proven otherwise, their most experienced goalkeeper is called Louis Domingue, which will become problematic against tougher opponents.
The fact remains that they know how to win. And they show it The Rangers are not there yet. It’s a shame for them and for Igor Shesterkin, who got them out of trouble so, so often. It is still part of a necessary learning curve, on the way to what will possibly be a formidable hockey machine for years to come.
However, learning is sometimes done the hard way. It gives matches like the one on Monday.