In a normal election campaign, with a Prime Minister struggling to explain why he wants a new term to “continue,” there would be an Opposition Leader putting on the Prime Minister-in-waiting’s guise.
Posted at 6:00 a.m.
But what we have seen since the start of the campaign is the Liberal Party of Quebec, which is only one of the four parties that divide the votes of the opposition to the Coalition avenir Québec (CAQ) which , consequently, is heading for an inglorious triumph.
In fact, while François Legault’s more than ordinary campaign makes him vulnerable, Dominique Anglade should be the prime minister-in-waiting. But she finished last in popularity among opposition party leaders in the polls.
Yet she is campaigning vigorously, sparing no effort and does not seem to be discouraged even though, as we are only halfway through the campaign, questions about her possible resignation in the event of defeat have already begun. .
Mme Anglade is not solely responsible. In fact, part of his current troubles stem from bad luck. She was elected leader of the party by acclamation, in the midst of a pandemic, while her only opponent withdrew. The leadership race that is to serve as a launching pad for a new leader has ended in indifference.
The liberal brand is damaged. The party is still seen as that of the austerity of the Couillard era or that of the allegations of corruption of the Charest era. The Liberal Party of Quebec (PLQ) has never had a real purgatory that would have allowed it to leave with new energy. He still pays dearly for it today.
On a strictly partisan level, the “liberal machine” that was accustomed to winning elections – four out of six since the start of this century – is aging and struggling to deliver. As proof, the PLQ will not present a complete team of candidates for the first time since Confederation. The party, which once had 200,000 members, had only 20,000 left at the start of the election campaign. On the strict level of electoral organization, this explains several of the current difficulties of the party.
Moreover, the QLP has been grappling with a real identity crisis since the debate between sovereigntists and federalists no longer dominates Quebec politics. Gone are the days when Jean Charest only had to say the word “referendum” to win an election.
In the interview he granted to Patrice Roy in June, we especially remembered the very harsh words – too much, he admitted – of Lucien Bouchard against the Parti Québécois. But he had had even tougher ones with the Liberal Party.
The PLQ, he said, is a coalition of nationalist federalists, Anglophones and cultural communities. But “French Quebecers, even federalists, are nationalists. There are many leaders of the PLQ who have forgotten it”.
Mme Anglade led his party to make a green shift and some shift to the left. But she seems to have abandoned nationalism in the CAQ and the Parti Québécois (PQ) – which is the party that is currently rising, with the good campaign of Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
But there are also problems that can be attributed to the chef herself. The Liberal platform is abstract, far from the immediate concerns of citizens, and Mme Anglade struggles to explain it and make it simple.
Its big promise is the Eco plan, a massive investment in green hydrogen. First, people do not know from the outset what they could do with hydrogen, a fuel that may become a solution in two or three decades. But all of this is not very concrete for today’s voters.
Especially since on a practical level, the experts note that it is to spend energy to create another source of energy. Is it so profitable if we have to considerably increase our electricity production?
The other big promise is a regional charter. A beautiful intention which however lacks real anchoring. It’s nice to say that we will give more powers to the regions, but it’s complicated to say how it will work. Who will make the decisions at the regional level?
An example: M.me Anglade says regions will have a say in immigration levels. But what if the demands of one or more regions contradict the policies of the Government of Quebec?
But, above all, there is nothing very concrete and very immediate for those who will go to the voting booth on October 3.
With polls sluggish, the most interesting race is not who will form the government, but who will end up in second place. In the current situation and for the first time in its history, the Liberal Party could form neither the government nor the official opposition. This is not a prediction, but it is now a possibility.