The article discusses the implications of the upcoming US presidential election on the Ukraine-Russia conflict. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky expresses hopes that the election outcome will affect peace negotiations and US support for Ukraine’s NATO integration. It contrasts the positions of candidates Donald Trump, who promises rapid peace but warns of reduced aid, and Kamala Harris, who aims to maintain current support and strengthen NATO. Both candidates’ approaches could significantly impact Ukraine’s situation amidst the ongoing war.
The upcoming US presidential election is garnering significant attention, particularly concerning its implications for Ukraine and Russia. Nearly three years after the beginning of the invasion, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has expressed his expectations about the election’s outcomes, suggesting that the nature of any peace negotiations with Russia ‘will depend’ on who emerges victorious. He also hopes for continued American support for Ukraine’s integration into NATO.
These expectations may be influenced by the election results, as each candidate has distinct perspectives on the ongoing conflict. President Zelensky has indicated he maintains ‘good’ relationships with both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, yet their approaches to the situation differ significantly.
Donald Trump’s Promise to Restore Peace
Donald Trump has articulated a vision for ‘restoring peace in Europe’ in his campaign. He has claimed he could end the war within 24 hours, although he has been vague about how he would accomplish this. An article in the Washington Post from last April suggested that Trump’s peace proposals may heavily favor Russia, potentially requiring Ukraine to concede significant territories.
America has been the largest supporter of Ukraine, with Statista reporting that from January 2022 to June 2024, aid towards Ukraine totaled approximately 75.1 billion euros. Despite this support, Trump has threatened to cut military, financial, and humanitarian assistance, arguing that American resources should prioritize domestic needs. If Trump were to reclaim the presidency, Ukraine, which is already facing challenges on the battlefield, could see its vital support severely diminished.
Trump’s critiques of American aid extend to NATO as well. He previously warned NATO allies that they must increase their financial contributions; otherwise, they would lack protection against Russian aggression. Zelensky hopes for NATO’s involvement in mediating with Russia, but a lack of American investment in NATO could jeopardize this possibility.
Kamal Harris’ Strategy
In contrast, Kamala Harris appears to align more closely with the policies of Joe Biden. As part of the administration, she emphasizes their swift response at the onset of Russia’s invasion. She recalls visiting Kiev just days before the attack to alert Zelensky about the threat posed by Vladimir Putin.
Despite her commitments to ‘support our allies, oppose dictators and play a leading role on the world stage’, Harris has provided limited specifics regarding her foreign policy agenda. Nevertheless, her stance appears to be more favorable towards Ukraine; she is less critical of NATO compared to Trump and expresses her intent to ‘work with our allies to ensure NATO is stronger than ever’. However, she has not explicitly committed to continuing this supportive trajectory.
As polls indicate a tight race between the two candidates, Zelensky has refrained from openly favoring either contender. He stated in mid-October that he experienced as many ‘good’ meetings with Trump as he did with Harris during her visit to the United States in September.
On the other hand, Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to lean towards Trump. During a recent press conference at the BRICS summit on October 24, he commended Trump’s ‘sincere’ remarks regarding his willingness to resolve the conflict. Previously, Putin had mockingly shown support for Harris, indicating the diplomatic landscape remains complex and could change dramatically depending on the election results.