Peace negotiations in Gaza, future of Benyamin Netanyahu, alternative to Hamas… Frédéric Encel’s “8h30 franceinfo”

The geopolitologist and professor at Sciences Po was the guest of “8h30 franceinfo”, Tuesday June 4, 2024.

Frédéric Encel, doctor in geopolitics and professor at Sciences Po, was the guest of “8h30 franceinfo”, Tuesday June 4, 2024. Peace negotiations in Gaza, political future of Benyamin Netanyahu, alternative to Hamas… He answered questions from ‘Agathe Lambret and Jérôme Chapuis.

Gaza: “I wouldn’t talk about a ‘peace plan'”

While American President Joe Biden presented an Israeli road map for Gaza on Friday, May 31, Frédéric Encel believes he cannot speak “peace plan”. “It is more likely a truce or a break of a humanitarian nature”analyzes the geopolitologist, who does not believe “absolutely not” in one “definitive cessation of hostilities”.

According to the White House, “Hamas is now the only obstacle to a complete ceasefire” in Gaza. “Hamas knows very well that if it releases all the hostages who remain alive and the remains of dead hostages without obtaining a cessation of hostilities, it will end up being defeated militarily by Israel”believes Frédéric Encel.

🔴 Peace plan between Israel and Hamas ➡️ “The European Union cannot weigh in, given its disunity [entre ses membres] “, analyzes Frédéric Encel. pic.twitter.com/C5VT5Iktmb

— franceinfo (@franceinfo) June 4, 2024

Benjamin Netanyahu, a Prime Minister “on borrowed time”

Opposition leader Yair Lapid reiterated that he was committed to supporting Benjamin Netanyahu to reach an agreement on the hostages if his far-right allies left the government. At the same time, two of the far-right ministers, Itamar Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, who make up Benyamin Netanyahu’s government are refusing any agreement, threatening to force the coalition into power. “They are so fanatical that, in my opinion, they would rather bring down the coalition and saw off the branch they are sitting on if Benjamin Netanyahu made concessions”estimates Frédéric Encel.

Enough to make Benyamin Netanyahu a Prime Minister “on borrowed time” , judge Frédéric Encel. Especially since the Centrist Benny Gantz, minister of the restricted war cabinet set up in the wake of the attacks carried out on October 7 by Hamas in Israel, had called in mid-May for the establishment of a “action plan” strategic, particularly on the post-war period in the Gaza Strip. The center-right Israeli party of the former chief of staff of the Israeli army also tabled a bill on Thursday, May 30, to dissolve Parliament and hold early elections.

🔴 Peace plan between Israel and Hamas ➡️ “If [B.Netanyahou] loses power, he loses his freedom, since he is subject to three judicial investigations of a criminal nature”, recalls Frédéric Encel. pic.twitter.com/Izcg7UtsMR

— franceinfo (@franceinfo) June 4, 2024

“If we consider that there could potentially be elections tomorrow or in any case a change of coalition and that Mr. Gantz or Mr. Lapid comes to power, I think that these personalities have never made a secret of this and are they in favor of the return of the Palestinian Authority?assures Frédéric Encel.

In Gaza, “no one wants Hamas”

For Frédéric Encel, “the Palestinian Authority must imperatively take charge of the Gaza Strip”where she was chased by Hamas in 2007. “There are not many who support Hamas, practically none and certainly not the states directly concerned. I think of contiguous Egypt, I think of contiguous Jordan of the West Bank… Nobody wants Hamas”observes the geopolitologist.

If the Palestinian Authority (PA) appears, for the moment, too fragile to take charge of the post-conflict political process in Gaza, one man stands out as a “potential future president of the PA”: Marwan Barghouti.

🔴Conflict in Gaza ➡️ ” [Le nom de Marwan Barghouti] is crowned with glory among Palestinian youth”, describes Frédéric Encel. pic.twitter.com/Bih98oJsJ1

— franceinfo (@franceinfo) June 4, 2024

Imprisoned since 2002 in Israel, he appears to be a consensus figure within Fatah, the main party of the Palestinian Authority. “He is someone conservative, but who is not from Hamas, who has never cooperated with Israel and he is someone who accepted the idea of ​​two states”underlines Frédéric Encel.

Find the entire “8:30 am franceinfo” from Tuesday June 4, 2024: