A prime minister on borrowed time? Britain’s Boris Johnson survived a damning report on Downing Street parties during lockdown on Monday, but his fate hangs in the balance as a police investigation could push him out.
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“Mistakes in leadership”, unjustified gatherings, culture of alcohol in the workplace… the Conservative leader and his services took for their rank in the 12-page report written by senior civil servant Sue Gray on garden parties, pots departure or birthday party organized during the confinements of the last two years, which shocked the British.
Despite this severe call to order which forced him to a mea culpa in Parliament and subjected to the arrows of deputies, including his camp, Boris Johnson has escaped the worst for the moment.
Only a redacted version of the potentially most damaging elements was revealed, so as not to compromise the police investigation into 12 of these 16 encounters.
Offering him some respite, many elected Conservatives are awaiting full publication or the conclusions of Scotland Yard, which could take several weeks, to decide on his fate.
His position is “probably secure in the near future”, but “he is no longer in control of the situation”, notes Simon Usherwood, professor of politics at the Open University, questioned by AFP.
The unrest was such Monday in the parliamentary ranks that Boris Johnson defended himself for an hour and 45 minutes. While trying to appease people’s minds, he had to postpone a call with Russian President Vladimir Putin on the Ukrainian crisis, before his visit to Kiev on Tuesday.
Abba
It is an unprecedented crisis for the man who triumphantly came to power in July 2019 before being comforted by a resounding victory at the polls, but today faced with disastrous polls and calls for resignation.
The next few weeks promise to be high risk, with police saying they have received more than 300 images and 500 pages of information, amid speculation rife in the media that Boris Johnson and his wife Carrie may be themselves questioned by investigators or be fined.
The “Met” looks in particular at a meeting that took place in the couple’s official apartment on November 13, 2020, where an Abba hit would have been broadcast to celebrate the departure of a powerful adviser who has since become the enemy. Prime Minister’s juror, Dominic Cummings.
“Given the scale of the police investigation, this will affect him very strongly,” predicts Simon Usherwood, noting the lack of enthusiasm Tuesday among Conservative ministers and MPs to come to his rescue.
A vote of no confidence is triggered as soon as 54 (out of 359) of the elected Tories request it and a simple majority would then suffice to oust him, opening a race for leadership.
Already, some have openly spoken out for his departure. “I think this crisis is not going to go away, and it is causing great harm to the party,” MP Andrew Mitchell told the BBC.
“Reluctance to act”
But this process can only occur once in twelve months, prompting the rebels to be tactically cautious. Especially since the candidates for his succession able to seduce, like him, the popular classes once won over to Labor in the north of England are not legion before local elections in May.
“A lot of MPs probably think he should go, but they’re not sure it’s the right time to position themselves. There is therefore a very great reluctance to act, ”analyzes political scientist Anand Menon, of King’s College London.
“One of the reasons, in my opinion, for which it is still in place, is precisely because the deputies are not convinced by the alternatives”, he adds to AFP.
In an attempt to forget the scandal and appease the rebels, the leader promised changes in the management of Downing Street while considering measures likely to seduce in his ranks, in terms of Brexit or the cost of living. But that might not be enough, because “the person at the top doesn’t change,” says Simon Usherwood.