Emmanuel Macron and Ursula von der Leyen are going to China for a joint visit, from April 5 to 8. The opportunity for the Europeans to readjust their strategy against Beijing.
A doctrine adjustment, before a crucial encounter. Ursula von der Leyen unveiled the European Union’s roadmap for its ties with Beijing on Thursday, March 30, in a speech given at the invitation of two think thanks. “The story of our relationship with China is not yet fully written, and it doesn’t have to be defensive,” said the President of the Commission, who will accompany Emmanuel Macron during his state visit to China, from April 5 to 8.
This speech marks “an evolution” for Europeans, deciphers Marc Julienne, China specialist at the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri). “In 2019, the EU doctrine concerning Beijing was clearly defined: it is an essential partner, particularly in the fight against climate change; an economic competitor, both on the European market and in other countries; and it is finally a systemic rival, with antagonistic values to those of Europe”, he recalls. Now this “third pillar is gaining in importance”.
A “deliberate hardening of the Chinese position”
“Our relationship has become more distant and more difficult in recent years,” thus recognized Ursula von der Leyen during her speech at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (Merics), Thursday, March 30. “For some time, we have seen a very deliberate hardening of China’s overall strategic posture.”
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This “radicalization of Chinese power” has notably affected human rights, analyzes Marc Julienne. “There was the crackdown on pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong, followed by the passage of the national security law that abruptly ended the territory’s autonomy. But also the revelations about internment and forced labor Uyghurs in Xinjiang, explains the expert. Since 2020, Beijing has also been exerting increasing military pressure on Taiwan.”
“The escalation that we see indicates that China is becoming more repressive at home and tougher abroad. (…) The clear goal of the Communist Party (CCP) is systemic change of the international order, focused on China.”
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commissionduring a speech at the think tank Merics
Europe has directly borne the brunt of this hardening of Chinese power. At the end of January, Beijing implemented trade retaliation measures against Lithuania, which had agreed to set up a Taiwan representative office on its soil. “There are also questions of influence and interference in our societies, predatory investments, espionage…”list Marc Julienne.
These are all elements that are also fueling the growing tensions between China and the United States, which “are increasingly structuring international relations”notes the Elysée. “In this context, the European Union carries its own position and defends its own interests. And France, as a member, also carries this ambition”recalls the French presidency.
More distance, but no break
This is the whole meaning of this journey in China. “After three years of absence, it is important to reconnect” with Beijing, assured the Elysée a few days before this state visit. “We are going there to discuss bilateral relations with the EU, adds a senior official of the European Commission. We want to see areas where we can cooperate, such as the fight against global warming, but we are watching the general evolution of Chinese policy with caution.”
Impossible, in fact, to completely cut ties with Beijing. As Ursula von der Leyen pointed out on Thursday March 30, “Ihe China is a key trading partner [de l’UE] : it represents 9% of our exports of goods and more than 20% of our imports of goods”. The Europeans therefore want to avoid aligning themselves with the strategy of “decoupling” of their American allies, who aim to “reduce relations with Beijing as much as possible”.
“The EU and France favor a policy of reducing the risks of dependence and exposure to Chinese markets, in particular by diversifying the countries with which they trade, or by repatriating certain industries and production chains.”
Marc Julienne, China specialist at Ifriat franceinfo
The Europeans have also considered a series of levers to “addressing the challenges posed by China”points out Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Research. “Some already exist, such as mechanisms for monitoring foreign investments or to ensure greater reciprocity on the opening of public markets, details the sinologist. Others are in development, as an anti-coercion tool [pour protéger l’UE du chantage économique].“
In this context, the objective of the Europeans is also to present a united front. “The evolution of China since 2020 has generally put the 27 in agreement”, summarizes Marc Julienne. Some observers had expressed doubts about this cohesion after the controversial trip to Beijing by German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in November, shortly after Xi Jinping was reappointed as head of the country. “This visit was followed by that of the President of the European Council, Charles Michel, reminds the specialist. All of this gave the impression of competition from European officials, rather than coordinated action.”
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This time, cohesion is clearly displayed. Emmanuel Macron invited Ursula von der Leyen to participate in part of his state visit to China, in the “continuity of its position so far”, notes Marc Julienne. In March 2019, the French president had indeed invited the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, and the President of the European Commission, Jean-Claude Juncker, to a meeting with Xi Jinping, on a state visit to France. “A few months later, Emmanuel Macron went to Shanghai with a European commissioner and a German minister”adds Antoine Bondaz.
Ukraine, a decisive case
European unity is all the more essential as the 27 intend to take advantage of this trip to tackle another crisis: the war in Ukraine. “China is the only country in a position to have an immediate and radical impact on the evolution of the conflict, one way or the other”, underlined the Elysée before Emmanuel Macron’s trip. Xi Jinping had so far been careful not to show too clearly his support for Moscow, while refusing to condemn the invasion of Ukraine. But a state visit to Russia at the end of March confirmed his closeness to Vladimir Putin, recalls The world.
“If China decided to switch from political support to military support, by delivering arms to Russia, it would be decisive for the rest of the war. And for its relations with the Europeans.”
Antoine Bondaz, researcher at the Foundation for Strategic Researchat franceinfo
“NOTWe are adapting our strategy and our policy to developments in Beijing, agrees a senior official of the Commission. The more China ignores international law, the more difficult it will make our bilateral relationship.” Both Brussels and Paris hope, however, that the meeting with Xi Jinping will make it possible to move forward on a solution to the Ukrainian conflict.
According to experts, Emmanuel Macron could thus address with Xi Jinping the question of the deployment by Russia of tactical nuclear weapons in its Belarusian ally. “China opposes nuclear sharing and has always criticized the United States on this point. [qui ont des armes nucléaires dans six pays d’Europe, dans le cadre de l’Otan]“recalls Antoine Bondaz. “France is therefore in a position to confront Beijing with its contradictions on this subject.”
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The researcher assures us: the 27 have “a role to play through their ability to adopt sanctions against Beijing, particularly in the technological field”. “If ever the internal market were to close to China, it would be 4 to 5 points of GDP less” for the EU’s main trading partner, confirmed European Commissioner Thierry Breton on Saturday 1 April. “We have a balance of power, you just have to be aware of it to have effective diplomatic relations.” Prior to her meeting with Xi Jinping, Ursula von der Leyen has in any case already warned: “The way in which [Pékin] will continue to react to Putin’s war will be a determining factor in the future of EU-China relations.”