Although he still refuses to publicly confirm his intentions regarding the leadership of the Quebec Liberal Party (PLQ), federal Transport Minister Pablo Rodriguez is working behind the scenes with the help of close collaborators to jump into the race to succeed Dominique Anglade, The Canadian Press has learned.
“They are active and preparing Pablo’s campaign,” whispered a provincial Liberal source who was not authorized to speak publicly.
This source named four people, including three in Mr Rodriguez’s inner circle, who are largely involved. The Canadian Press decided not to identify them because one of them feared that his job and those of the others would be at risk if the information was made public.
After checking, a source in the minister’s entourage confirmed that “we are preparing.” She mentioned in particular that Mr. Rodriguez had conversations with Liberal elected officials to test the waters and solicit their support should he launch. Several of them have also indicated to The Canadian Press having recently discussed with him a possible candidacy.
Another source confirmed that they are part of the minister’s inner circle “who worked very hard” to convince him to enter the race. And this group is, “it’s true,” learning “about the modalities in order to be ready” the day the minister announces his candidacy.
“The approach is serious,” they add. “These are not balloons thrown into the air.”
A fourth source, also in the federal government, confided that steps had been taken to find out about the rules of the race and discussions had taken place with the PLQ, information that could be cross-checked otherwise.
On some elements, “if he decides to go for it, we know what to do” and how to “guide” Mr. Rodriguez during the first days, the source tells us.
But it’s still at a preliminary level. There’s no game plan like “here’s your speech (for) the first day, here are the interviews (for) the third day,” they illustrate.
There is no platform either. In other words, “if he announces tomorrow that he is launching, we have crusts to eat.”
Dive or not dive?
Has Mr. Rodriguez made his decision? The main person concerned assured journalists who questioned him about his intentions on Monday that he would come and see them “when I have things to say.”
During this press briefing in Halifax at the location of the federal cabinet retreat, he told The Canadian Press that he was “very comfortable” letting the suspense hang in the air and sitting between two chairs with Quebec while he rubs shoulders with his colleagues, perhaps soon to be ex-colleagues, for three days.
While assuring that he does not intend to “make a record,” the man who is also Justin Trudeau’s political lieutenant for Quebec, masterfully avoided saying whether he is waiting for the by-election in the Montreal riding of LaSalle-Émard-Verdun — a stronghold that the Liberals cannot afford to lose — to pass before taking his leave.
But, when digging deeper, a provincial Liberal source was categorical: “he confirms that he is coming to the leadership of the PLQ and I am really not the only one to whom he is telling this.”
At the same time, this person qualifies that it happens that “at the last minute” politicians who were “sure and motivated” to get started “sod their pants” and abandoned the idea.
“As long as it’s not announced behind a podium, there’s always a chance he won’t go.”
Around Mr. Rodriguez, one source insisted that the decision is not “final” to the point of saying “100%” he will go. Another person reported that it is “90% sure that he will go.”
The provincial Liberals are holding their pre-sessional caucus next week in Gatineau, Outaouais. A campaign event is planned for Tuesday evening. “All the MNAs should be there, normally. If Pablo wants to come…” said a source, with a wry smile, and eager for him to show up.
However, Mr. Rodriguez is not expected to be present. The federal Liberals from Quebec will meet in pre-sessional caucus the same day in Estrie.
Even though he is not yet officially in the race, Pablo Rodriguez already enjoys the support of the MNA for Notre-Dame-de-Grâce, Désirée McGraw, who became the first elected member of the Liberal caucus to openly offer her support to a candidate expected or declared in the race for the leadership of the PLQ.
Mr. Rodriguez’s daughter and his communications director, Jacques Martineau, were present at the PLQ Youth Commission congress in Montreal at the beginning of August to test the waters.
The race is taking shape
So far, only two candidates have entered the Liberal leadership race, which does not officially begin until next January: former Montreal mayor Denis Coderre and former president of the Fédération des chambres de commerce du Québec Charles Milliard.
In addition to Mr. Rodriguez, the mayor of Victoriaville, Antoine Tardif, and the PLQ member for Marguerite-Bourgeoys, Frédéric Beauchemin, are expected to eventually announce their candidacy.
The Liberals are betting on this race for their revival. However, the next Liberal leader will have a lot to do to rebuild his party. According to the latest Léger polls, the PLQ is garnering a meager support of barely 6% among Francophones.
Candidates who want to succeed Dominique Anglade will also have to work hard to recruit new members aged 16 to 25 who have deserted the PLQ in recent years. Young members account for 33% of the votes in a leadership race.
The new Liberal leader will be chosen in the summer of 2025.