Warmer seas, political chaos and failing infrastructure are behind the devastating effects of floods that have killed at least 2,300 people in Libya, according to several experts.
During the night from Sunday to Monday, the two dams retaining the waters of Wadi Derna, the wadi which crosses the town of Derna, on the east coast of the Mediterranean, failed.
Powerful torrents destroyed bridges and swept away entire neighborhoods with their inhabitants on either side of the wadi, before flowing into the sea.
Since the great earthquake which shook the town of al-Marj (east) in 1963, it is the worst natural disaster experienced by Cyrenaica, the eastern province of Libya.
Storm Daniel formed around September 4, spreading death and destruction in Bulgaria, Greece and Turkey last week before arriving in Libya.
These Mediterranean storms which have the characteristics of tropical cyclones and hurricanes, called “medicanes” (contraction of Mediterranean hurricanes), only occur one to three times per year.
To form, they need flows of heat and humidity, which are “enhanced by the high temperatures of the sea surface”, underlines Suzanne Gray, professor in the department of meteorology at the University of Reading in Great Britain. Brittany.
However, for several weeks, the surface waters of the eastern Mediterranean and the Atlantic have been 2°C to 3°C warmer than usual. They are therefore “likely to have caused more intense precipitation”, several scientists declared at a meeting of the UK National Climate Impacts.
Foreshadowing?
“There is a direct link between increased rainfall and flooding. Added to this are local weather conditions. For this particular event, it results from a persistent high pressure blockage that is currently dissipating,” the scientists explain.
They add that at the moment it is difficult to say whether or not this type of event will be more frequent in the future. According to some models, climate change could reduce the number of cyclones in the Mediterranean but increase their intensity.
Most scientists are reluctant to draw direct links between individual weather events and long-term climate change.
However, the storm Daniel “illustrates the type of devastating floods we can increasingly expect in the future” as the world warms, said Lizzie Kendon, professor of climate science at the University of Bristol.
According to the European Copernicus Observatory, overheating sea surface temperatures, which absorb 90% of the excess heat produced by human activity since the industrial era, are leading to record heat levels across the world and 2023 will be probably the hottest year in history.
Not a “natural disaster”
But climate doesn’t explain everything.
Some analysts say Libya’s fragmented political scene — riven by more than a decade of civil war following the fall of dictator Muammar Gaddafi, who ruled from 1969 to 2011 — also contributed to the catastrophe.
The North African country is divided between two rival governments: the internationally recognized and UN-brokered administration based in the capital Tripoli in the west, and a separate administration in the flood-hit eastern region.
“The events unfolding in Libya remind us that there is no such thing as a natural disaster,” said Leslie C, lecturer in environmental systems at the Open University in the United Kingdom.
“It is true that climate change may make extreme weather events more frequent, more unpredictable and more violent, in ways that may exceed the capacity of our existing infrastructure and systems to cope,” notes- She.
“But at the same time,” according to this specialist, “social, political and economic factors determine who and where we are most exposed to the risk of greater damage when these extreme events occur.”
The loss of life is also a consequence of the limited nature of Libya’s forecasting capabilities, warning and evacuation systems, observes Kevin Collins, lecturer at the Open University.
Weaknesses in infrastructure and city planning and design standards have also been highlighted, he adds.
Political conditions in Libya “pose challenges for the development of communication strategies and risk assessment, for the coordination of rescue operations, and also, potentially, for the maintenance of critical infrastructure such as dams”, adds Leslie Mabon.