A classic resolution at the start of the year for a columnist is to circle the events that he will monitor for the next 12 months.
Unexpected events will arise, but three events already announced will particularly appeal to me.
I limit myself to the international scene.
China and France
The Winter Olympics will be held in Beijing from February 4 to 20. Banal, you might say. Not at all.
All the Olympics are now highly political. The host country looks after its image and wants to impress the world.
We will have our eyes full of them, and Chinese efficiency, whatever one may think of its means, will be astounding.
The Beijing Games, however, come against a backdrop of great tension between China and the West, and at a time when Omicron risks being at the peak of its disruptive capacities.
China no longer displays its traditional reserve. Proud of its successes – how can we not be? -, she responds curtly to the Americans who raise the case of the Uyghurs: and your Aboriginals?
China knows the West is barking, but not biting. How can we blame her for believing this when we see the behavior of our leaders and our economic dependence on her?
Then, on April 10 and 24, the two rounds of the presidential election will take place in France.
There was a time when French political life exerted an undeniable influence on our own. I am thinking in particular of October 23, 1995, when Jacques Chirac blurted out on CNN that France would recognize a possible YES to the independence of Quebec, which would have led to the rallying of many French-speaking African countries.
We are no longer there at all. France turned away from us when she saw that we would remain provincials.
Emmanuel Macron is the favorite, despite a mixed record, simply because he is more reassuring than his opponents.
See the latest Ipsos-Cevipof- pollThe world : Macron (24%), Pécresse (17%), Le Pen (14.5%), Zemmour (14.5%), etc.
The progress of Valérie Pécresse and the large number of undecided people do not allow confident predictions, but one aspect is striking.
The first four candidates embody positions that range from vague centrism to the various sensibilities of the right.
The four collect 70% of the expressed intentions! The first clearly left candidate, Jean-Luc Mélenchon, is at 8.5%!
The center of gravity of French political life has clearly shifted to the right.
A CNEWS poll indicates that the top four concerns of the French are purchasing power, social protection, security and immigration.
The left is paying heavily for its abandonment of the traditional working classes in favor of woke fads about “racialized” minorities and gender identities.
Trump?
Finally, on November 8, the mid-term elections to the US Congress will take place.
If the Republicans, who are already in the majority in the Senate, regain, as is likely, their majority in the House of Representatives, Biden will be paralyzed, further helping Trump’s return in 2024.